Week 12 12-team College Football Playoff prediction: Which SEC contender gets left out?

The week 12 slate wasn’t particularly enticing on paper, but college football always manages to deliver some fireworks.

Georgia topped Tennessee in a top-15 matchup that headlined the weekend, no. 6 BYU fell from the ranks of the unbeaten at the hands of Kansas, and top-ranked Oregon survived at Wisconsin. 

With just two weeks remaining in the regular season, playoff spots are still very much up for grabs. Here is my week 12 College Football Playoff prediction:

SEC Title and playoff races heating up 

With Georgia’s win over Tennessee, the SEC is heading down the stretch with six teams in the hunt for the league crown.

Texas and Texas A&M are at the top of the standings and will square off in the final game of the regular season to potentially determine the SEC’s top seed. I am predicting that Texas wins that game (giving Texas A&M a second conference loss and third overall), and eventually wins the SEC Championship. 

With its win this weekend, Georgia now surges back into the picture and pushes Tennessee to the edge of the ledge, a place several SEC teams have visited including Alabama and the Bulldogs themselves. 

Ole Miss got a well-deserved off week while Alabama triumphed over Mercer in non-conference play. Due in part to the success of the Big Ten, one or more of these SEC contenders will be left out of the playoff.

Right now, I have Ole Miss getting bumped out due to strength of schedule. Lane Kiffin’s Rebels got a signature win over Georgia and will look to finish strong, but their losses to Kentucky and LSU are looking worse by the week and will come back to haunt them.  

Fellow projected 2-loss teams Georgia, Alabama, and Tennessee have all played much tougher schedules and have quality wins of their own. Of these three, Georgia has the most impressive resume with two top-10 wins and another top-15 win. Additionally, the Bulldogs' two losses have both come to borderline top-10 teams. 

Alabama and Tennessee have very similar resumes, both having taken a top-10 loss and an additional unexpected loss. Bama has more quality wins, but the head-to-head component goes to Tennessee, making Alabama the 11-seed in this prognostication.  

No drama in the Big Ten 

The Big Ten playoff race is about as cut and dry as it gets, with the top four teams nearing lock status for the CFP. As an admitted SEC homer, it’s been pretty frustrating to see how the Big Ten has played out this season. 

This is essentially an 18-team league with 14 bad teams. Oregon, Ohio State, Penn State, and Indiana all deserve credit for not stepping on landmines and keeping their records clean, but it’s hard to tell how good they really are. 

Ohio State has the playoff pedigree and is undoubtedly one of college football’s most talented teams. When it’s all said and done, they will have played each of the other three Big Ten contenders. The Buckeyes will be the most battle-tested, and I think they win the league in the end. 

Oregon, Penn State, and Indiana all effectively play one-game schedules, and will make the field with impressive records as a result.  

Single Bids for ACC and Big 12?

I have now officially moved Colorado into the field as my projected Big 12 champion. Even after taking its first loss, BYU still controls its own destiny at the top of the league, but the Cougars have been playing with fire for weeks now. 

Conversely, Coach Prime’s Buffaloes are playing their best ball at the right time. After pulling away from Utah late, Colorado is now riding a 4-game winning streak, winning those games by nearly 20 points on average.

Subjectively speaking, the Buffs have just looked better and have more explosive offensive potential, which is why I am taking them to win out and beat BYU in what will ultimately amount to a CFP play-in game. 

Similarly, the ACC looks like it will come down to Miami and SMU, assuming the Hurricanes don’t falter late. Clemson kept its hopes alive with a late touchdown to beat Pitt, but even with a 7-1 league record the Tigers will need some help to get into the title game. 

Will the ACC steal an extra bid? It’s tough to imagine the ACC title game loser making the field.

Sure, Miami has brand notoriety, but the Canes’ resume just doesn’t stand up. The most impressive win you can find on their schedule is Louisville, Duke, or perhaps even Florida, who resides in the bottom-5 of the SEC standings. Add in a loss to an unranked Georgia Tech squad, and Miami is not at all deserving of an at-large bid. 

SMU’s at-large resume is a little more impressive, but I don’t think the Mustangs get in with a second loss given how competitive the race for at-large spots will be. 

As long as it keeps winning, Boise State will continue to be my projected Group of Five champion, but undefeated Army is lurking if the Broncos slip up. 

Which conference will reign supreme?

If the rest of the season plays out how I think it will, this will be a fascinating playoff to watch. The playoff committee has already proven it values win-loss record over strength of schedule or resume.

As a result, we are trending towards a cluster of 2-loss SEC teams, who are loaded with talent and have championship pedigrees, having to go up north to play higher-seeded Big Ten teams and Notre Dame.

This will be an opportunity for the SEC to reassert its dominance while also giving the midwest teams a chance to prove they are more than just a paper tiger.