This weekend’s college football slate was loaded with potential trap games and, in a rare instance, nearly all of them delivered on their upset potential.
In the SEC alone, Florida beat Ole Miss in the Swamp, Auburn took down Texas A&M in four overtimes, and, unfortunately, Alabama failed to show up in an embarrassing 24-3 loss at Oklahoma. The Rebels, Aggies, and Crimson Tide all saw legitimate College Football Playoff aspirations evaporate before their eyes.
While the depth of the league certainly shined through this weekend, there suddenly aren’t as many national championship contenders in the SEC.
Here is my updated playoff prediction after a hectic week 13:
Seed | Team | Bid Status | Previous Ranking |
|---|---|---|---|
1 | Ohio State | Big Ten Champ | 1 |
2 | Georgia | SEC Champ | 9 |
3 | Miami | ACC Champ | 3 |
4 | Arizona State | Big 12 Champ | Not ranked |
5 | Oregon | At-large | 5 |
6 | Texas | At-large | 2 |
7 | Penn State | At-large | 7 |
8 | Tennessee | At-large | 10 |
9 | Indiana | At-large | 6 |
10 | Notre Dame | At-large | 8 |
11 | SMU | At-large | Not ranked |
12 | Boise State | Mountain West Champ | 12 |
Georgia was the primary beneficiary of Texas A&M and Alabama’s poor showings. The Bulldogs have now cemented a spot in the SEC Title game, and I believe they will win it.
Texas and Tennessee are the only other surefire playoff-caliber SEC teams at this point in the season.
In the biggest non-SEC game of the day, Ohio State handled Indiana easily in a top-5 bout. Ohio State remains my pick to ultimately win the Big Ten (which would require that they avenge their sole loss against Oregon) and secure the no. 1 overall seed.
With all the chaos the SEC endured this week, the top four teams in the Big Ten almost feel like playoff locks. I have Oregon, Penn State, and Indiana all securing at-large bids.
Arizona State looks to be the hottest team in the Big 12 and is my latest pick to win the league. Iowa State, BYU, and Colorado are all still squarely in the hunt for the Big 12 crown.
Boise State continues to play with fire, but the Broncos escaped once again and are still my prediction to be the highest-ranked Group of Five conference champion.
If Boise State slips up, Army and Tulane will be lurking, along with Mountain West foe UNLV, who could meet the Broncos in the conference title game.
2-bid ACC or 3-loss SEC team?
Miami has become a less popular pick to win the ACC in recent weeks, but they are still my choice. Given the tumult around the country, the league may now get two teams in. Assuming Miami plays SMU in the conference championship game, it looks like there is a very good chance the loser will still get in. Still, the final at-large spot is very intriguing.
The rivalry weekend showdown between Clemson and South Carolina could potentially determine that final bid. Clemson is on the fringes of playoff contention with a 9-2 record, and could get in with a little more carnage and a win over their in-state rival.
Likewise, South Carolina has looked the most impressive amongst a growing pool of 3-loss SEC teams in recent weeks. It will be tough for a 3-loss team to get in, but the Gamecocks have been scorching hot for well over a month now.
Additionally, the general consensus is that South Carolina was robbed of a game against LSU back in September, which could potentially factor in. If it can get a win next week, South Carolina will have only lost to ranked opponents while closing the season with wins over Oklahoma, Texas A&M, Vanderbilt, Missouri, and Clemson.
As a fellow 3-loss SEC team with good wins on its resume, Alabama still statistically has a decent shot of getting in the field. As a Bama fan, however, I don't feel as though those odds are even worth discussing. The team’s effort and execution last night were nowhere near deserving of playoff consideration, and I have little belief that Alabama would be able to make any noise even if it backed its way into a bid.