The 3-0 Alabama Crimson Tide is currently projected as a Playoff team. For months, Alabama was excluded from Playoff predictions. Now ESPN, USA Today, CBS Sports, Yahoo Sports, The Athletic, Bleacher Report, and others have the Crimson Tide in the 12-team field as either an 8-seed or a 9-seed.
There is no consensus about whether the SEC will earn four or five Playoff teams. The season's first three weeks argue that it should be five. In non-conference games against Power Four teams, the SEC is 10-2. The other Power Fours are underwater: the Big 12 is 5-7, the ACC 6-9, and the Big Ten is 4-9. Texas beating Ohio State was huge for the SEC, but other games point to the B1G as overrated. Last week, USC struggled to beat Rutgers; the Scarlet Knights are 0-3, with a loss to UMass. Oregon lost to Oklahoma State in Week 2.
According to ESPN's FPI, eight SEC teams have a 20.3% or higher probability of making the Playoff field. Alabama is the third-highest at 57.8%. Texas is 85.3%, Georgia is 75.4%, Ole Miss is 40.1%, Tennessee is 33.2%, LSU is 27.9%, Florida is 27.1%, and Mississippi State is 20.3%. The SEC's only other double-digit Playoff probabilities are Texas A&M at 13.7% and Oklahoma at 11.7%.
SEC Football Playoff Bubble Teams and Games
Alabama is not a bubble team unless the Crimson Tide loses to South Carolina. Neither are Texas and Georgia. The SEC bubble teams are Ole Miss, Tennessee, LSU, Florida, Mississippi State, Texas A&M, and Oklahoma.
Projecting Week 4 outcomes for bubble teams: Oklahoma loses to Georgia and drops out of the bubble; Alabama over South Carolina, Texas over Tennessee, and Georgia over Oklahoma maintain the SEC Bubble status quo, with the Sooners teetering. The loser of Texas A&M at LSU will give the SEC another bubble-teetering team. If Mississippi State loses to Missouri at home, the Bulldogs might drop out of the SEC bubble. The loser of Ole Miss at Florida will not drop out of the SEC Playoff Bubble.
Not mathematically, but practically, either Texas A&M's or LSU's playoff chances will collapse by dropping to a 2-2 record.
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