This week's SEC Playoff Bubble Watch presumes that the SEC will have no more than five Playoff teams. Therefore, the SEC can only have five 'Contenders' each week. Below the contenders are bubble teams, below-bubble teams, and the SEC's 'Forget About It' teams. Based on ESPN's FPI projections, the Alabama Crimson Tide is a contender.
Last week's FPI gave the Crimson Tide a 57.8% probability of making the Playoff field. This week, the Crimson Tide's odds are 72.7%. Four other SEC teams also received nice Playoff probability bump-ups and are Playoff contenders. The Texas Longhorns went from 85.3% to 90%. Georgia moved from 75.4% to 84%; Florida exploded from 27.1% to 49.4%; and LSU moved from 27.9% to 40.5%. and the
SEC Football Playoff Bubble Teams
The top SEC Bubble team is Mississippi State. This week, the Bulldogs went from a 20.3% probability to 24.1%. Bulldogs fans are ringing cowbells for more. Beating Alabama on Saturday would likely move Mississippi State to contender status.
The SEC's other Bubble teams are Tennessee and Ole Miss. The Vols moved from a 33.2% probability to 22%. Ole Miss' playoff chances fell off a cliff, moving from 40.1% to 16.1%.
Below the Playoff Bubble ... and lower
Technically, no SEC team is eliminated from Playoff contention. But based on the FPI's calculations, five SEC teams have odds of 5.7% to 2.2%. Those below the bubble are: Auburn, 5.7%; Kentucky, 4.1%; Oklahoma, 3.9%; Texas A&M, 3.3%; and Missouri, 2.2%.
I'm calling what is left the SEC's 'Forget About It' teams. They are South Carolina, with a calculated probability of 0.8%; Vanderbilt, at 0.5%; and Arkansas, with some FPI bluntness, at 0%.
Along with Mississippi State, the SEC teams that can best improve their Playoff odds in Week 5 games are: Auburn on the road against Tennessee; and Missouri hosting Florida in Columbia.
Based on Bill Connelly's SP+ calculations only three SEC teams are contenders to become the SEC Champion. They are Georgia (44.7%), Texas (15.6%), and Alabama (15.1%). The next closest team is Florida, at 7.1%.
Add us as a preferred source on Google