My string of Alabama Playoff and SEC 'Bubble' team posts is taking a turn. Based on ESPN's FPI, Alabama is still alive as a Playoff contender. But several current predictions from individuals rather than computers exclude Alabama from the 12-team field. Hence, 'Welcome to the Bubble,' Alabama!
Those predictions will get no pushback from me. My preseason prediction for the Crimson Tide was a 10-2 regular season, followed by a Playoff win. It could still happen, but not the way Alabama played in Knoxville, on both sides of the ball.
Alabama's First Round Playoff Game is Saturday
Theoretically, Alabama could make the Playoff field at 9-3. Even if the SEC gets five teams, I'm not convinced 9-3 would be good enough. If the third loss is to LSU, then Georgia, LSU, and Tennessee would probably be ranked above Alabama. All of them, at that point, with wins over Alabama. In addition, Ole Miss, Texas, and Kentucky could be in a stronger position than the Crimson Tide.
There is much football left to play. Much will change. But the situation laid out above is potentially a nightmare one for the Crimson Tide.
A current ESPN prediction has four SEC teams in the Playoff field. The four are Georgia, Ole Miss, Kentucky, and Tennessee. None are projected to get a first-round bye. Only Georgia and Ole Miss would host a home game.
Athlon Sports has the same four SEC teams making the Playoff field. SI.com predicts only three SEC Playoff teams. They are Georgia, Ole Miss, and Kentucky. The Athletic published a predictor with the top three teams projected for each seed. Alabama was included as a 9-seed and a 10-seed, but with only a 7% probability for each one.
Alabama players can be expected to fight hard in every future elimination game. The bigger question is how Kalen DeBoer, Ryan Grubb, and Kane Wommack respond. Tennessee had a better game plan than Alabama, and the Crimson Tide did not effectively adjust. The Texas A&M coaching staff and team are also backed against a wall. The Aggies are a flawed team, but so was Alabama on Saturday.
The Crimson Tide should beat the Aggies. DeBoer should not wait until the bye week to begin making scheme changes.
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