What Alabama fans can expect on Tuesday night and what the Playoff Selection Committee will get wrong

The CFB Playoff Selection Committee's annual task has become more difficult than ever. Alabama Crimson Tide fans don't have sympathy for the committee struggling with parity. Will the Crimson Tide be ranked in the top 11 teams on Tuesday night?.

Although Nichole Auerbach predicts the Crimson Tide will be the first team out of the top 12 on Tuesday night, she provides solid analysis. She reminds us that each cycle's first rankings are difficult to predict "because we don’t yet know how the selection committee feels about certain wins and losses."

My thought is that each week's explanations of the rankings provide less than clarity, because the committee is known to reach contradictory conclusions as the process continues. But Auerbach is correct: more will be known after the first rankings. She is not the only source predicting Alabama will be outside the top 12.

The big question for Alabama and other SEC teams is to what extent a purportedly improved 'record strength' metric affects the rankings. Since the Selection Committee does not provide full details about the metric, fans are left to guess.

Three measures can be used in guesses: other sources of Strength of Schedule (SOS) and Strength of Record (SOR), and the team's records against currently AP-ranked teams.

Alabama is strong in SOS and SOR rankings

• Alabama - No. 7 SOS and No. 8 SOR - The Crimson Tide has two wins over current AP-ranked teams: Kentucky and South Carolina.

Six playoff contenders have zero wins over current AP-ranked teams: Miami, Notre Dame, Indiana, LSU, Wake Forest, and UCLA. No doubt the committee will highly rate the undefeated records of Miami, Utah, and UCLA. The Canes won't be punished for a No. 49 SOS. Neither will Notre Dame with a No. 55 SOS. Every SEC fan knows Utah's No. 83 SOS and UCLA's No. 77 SOS should lower their rankings, but it's unlikely the committee will agree.

While likely leaving the Crimson Tide out of the top 12, the committee will probably rank Indiana and UCLA as On3 predicts, with the Bruins a 4-seed and the Hoosiers a 5-seed. Neither team has a resume deserving of anything above a low seed. Utah, with one ranked win over Houston, would also be suspect as a higher seed.

The good news for Alabama is that it can resolve any playoff doubts by beating LSU. Based on broad national opinion, doing so would be an upset.

Note: SOS and SOR rankings provided by ESPN FPI

Add us as a preferred source on Google

Follow