Any human prediction assuring the outcome of the SEC Championship Game is flawed. There are reasons why the Alabama Crimson Tide should win and why Georgia should win, but the game's outcome is not entirely predictable.
Because the teams are so closely matched, the winner will most likely be the beneficiary of the most good luck and the fewest officiating mistakes. Alabama football fans can find some comfort in this situation because it suggests a worst-case close loss for the Crimson Tide. A close loss should assure Alabama of a playoff slot.
Alabama Crimson Tide and Computer Model Projections
Every week, I follow the game predictions from six computer models. They are more accurate than they are wrong. Five of the six provide a winning team probability percentage. Three of the five project Georgia as the most probable winner, with the highest rate being 54%. Two models project Alabama as the winner, with the higher probability of 53%.
SEC Championship Game Predictions
- Massey Ratings - Alabama Crimson Tide 28 - Georgia Bulldogs 26 - Win Probability of 53%
- ESPN Analytics - Alabama Crimson Tide Win Probability of 51.1%
- Bill Connelly's SP+ - Georgia Bulldogs 27 - Alabama Crimson Tide 24 - Win Probability of 53%
- Jeff Sagarin Ratings - Rounding off percentages in predictions usually makes sense, but in this case, Sagarin's model prediction is so close that the decimal points are added - Georgia Bulldogs 25.36 - Alabama Crimson Tide 24.72 - Win Probability of 54%.
- Brian Fremeau's FEI Ratings - Georgia Bulldogs 27 - Alabama Crimson Tide 26 - Win Probability of 53.4%
- College Football Nerds Model - Georgia Bulldogs 30 - Alabama Crimson Tide 26 - The model strongly favors Georgia in rushing stats, projecting Alabama to rush for 2.8 yards per carry and the Bulldogs to average 4.61 yards.
How tight will the game's final margin be? If three of the models are right about a slight margin, one vagary, like a sudden puff of wind on a long field goal, could be the difference. Or some other unpredictability, such as a tipped pass or a bounce of the ball on a fumble, could be the difference.