Alabama saw its eight-game winning streak snapped on Saturday afternoon at home against Oklahoma. The loss also broke a 17-game home winning streak, dating back to the 2023 season.
A win over the Sooners would have made the Crimson Tide a mortal lock to make the College Football Playoff, rendering the Iron Bowl in two weeks mostly meaningless aside from bragging rights.
Now, Alabama's path is murkier. Everything will be on the line in Jordan-Hare Stadium.
The good news is that Alabama's loss to Oklahoma is not nearly as devastating as it was last season, albeit just as, if not more, frustrating. Kalen DeBoer's team had reeled off eight wins in a row after the season-opening loss to Florida State, racking up a plethora of quality wins, including one on the road against Georgia at the end of September.
That means that the loss to Oklahoma isn't likely to knock Alabama out of the projected playoff field come Tuesday when the committee releases its updated rankings.
It does knock them out of first-round bye territory. And, at least for now, may knock them out of potentially hosting a first-round game. That could change if Alabama beats Auburn and earns a spot in the SEC Championship Game. It'd be hard to see Alabama not hosting a playoff game even if they lost in Atlanta. A win could jump them right back into bye territory.
Alabama's updated College Football Playoff projection
Alabama has been 4th in the projected playoff field for the first two weeks. They're going to tumble on Tuesday. The question is how far.
An important reminder is that you need to be ranked in the Top 10 to have a chance at an at-large berth into the 12-team playoff field right now. That's because the ACC champion and the top team from the Group of Five are ranked outside of the Top 12. The five highest-ranked conference champions receive automatic bids to the playoff.
All the experts still expect Alabama to remain inside the Top 10 and in the projected playoff field.
ESPN's Heather Dinich projects the Crimson Tide at No. 9, just behind Oklahoma. That would set up a first-round rematch with the Sooners in Norman.
Sports Illustrated's Bryan Fischer projects Alabama at No. 10 as the second-highest-ranked two-loss team, somehow behind Notre Dame. As the 10-seed in Fischer's bracket, the Crimson Tide would play No. 7 Oregon on the road.
The Athletic's Austin Mock agrees with Dinich and has Alabama at No. 9, but has Notre Dame somehow ahead of Oregon at No. 7, pitting the Tide against the Ducks in Autzen in the first round.
CBS's Brad Crawford is higher on Alabama's projection than anyone else. Crawford has Alabama at No. 6, ahead of Ole Miss, Oregon, Oklahoma, and Notre Dame. He has the Crimson Tide set up for a home playoff game against projected ACC Champion Georgia Tech in Bryant-Denny.
As disappointing as the loss to Oklahoma was, the experts all agree: Alabama is still a playoff team, as long as it can avoid losing to Auburn in the Iron Bowl.
Reasonable predictions for the Crimson Tide this year had them at 10-2 in the regular season. At 8-2, that reasonable prediction is still right in front of the. They just need to rebound like we saw them do in the aftermath of the Florida State loss.