To open the second half of the 2018 National Championship Game, Nick Saban made one of the boldest moves in the history of college football. He benched sophomore QB Jalen Hurts, a QB who had led Alabama to a 26-2 record as the team's starter, winning the 2016 SEC Offensive Player of the Year, and leading the team to back-to-back National Championship Games.
But Alabama needed a spark, trailing 13-0 to the Bulldogs, and Saban made the decision to insert Tua Tagovailoa. Everyone knows what happened next. Tagovailoa engineered an epic comeback, tying the game at 20 going into overtime. He then made one of the most famous plays in college football history, throwing a walk-off touchdown from 41 yards out to DeVonta Smith to win the title.
What if Saban didn't make that decision? The easy choice would have been to stick with the guy who had gotten him there, and who had won so many games for the Crimson Tide.
But what made Saban the GOAT is his willingness to make those difficult decisions. But it's the offseason, we're still a few weeks away from fall camp, and it's fun to look at some revisionist history.
College Football would look a lot different if Saban doesn't make that QB change
For starters, Georgia wins that game, something like 27-7, and Alabama would have lost a second consecutive National Championship Game. Kirby Smart would have led Georgia to the title, getting the Bulldogs to the mountaintop four years earlier than he did in real life.
Tua Tagoavailoa has gone on record stating he was prepared to transfer if he didn't play against Georgia. So he leaves following the loss, ultimately choosing to transfer to USC. This was before players could freely transfer, but let's say, for the sake of argument, he is granted a waiver to play immediately in Los Angeles. He would walk into an extremely talented WR tandem with future NFL wideouts Amon-Ra St. Brown and Michael Pittman.
Due to the portal not yet exisiting in its current state, Alabama hangs on to everyone else.
Jalen Hurts takes a big leap over the 2018 summer, just like he did in real life. He's an improved passer, and just like in real life, the Crimson Tide goes undefeated in the regular season. Hurts earns his redemption against Georgia, just like he really did, and leads Alabama to the SEC Championship and into the College Football Playoff.
Tagovailoa wins the Heisman Trophy at USC, and the Trojans make the playoff. Alabama beats Oklahoma, and USC falls to Clemson in the semifinals, setting up the Tide and Tigers for the title, mirroring real life.
Trevor Lawrence and Clemson are still too much for Alabama with Hurts at QB, and Hurts loses a third straight National Championship Game.
After the season, Alabama loses three major pieces to the portal: WR Jerry Jeudy, WR Jaylen Waddle, and RB Najee Harris.
Jeudy ends up at Oklahoma with Lincoln Riley, who also signs Georgia's Justin Fields out of the Transfer Portal since Hurts was not available. Waddle heads to Los Angeles to join Tagovailoa at USC, forming the best WR trio in the country with St. Brown and Pittman. Harris ends up at Michigan with Jim Harbaugh.
Alabama loses just one game in the 2019 regular season: at home vs. Joe Burrow and LSU. Led by Hurts, the Tide beats Auburn in the Iron Bowl to finish 11-1. Alabama narrowly misses the playoff at 11-1, and Hurts caps a record-breaking career by leading the Tide to a blowout of Baylor in the Sugar Bowl. Hurts never wins a National Championship, but finishes his Alabama career with a 52-4 record as the team's starter.
Tagoavailoa suffers through an injury-plagued junior season, and USC finishes 9-3, severely disappointing after opening the season as preseason No. 1. LSU wins the National Championship, blowing out Fields, Jeudy, and Oklahoma.
Tagovailoa and Hurts are still drafted by the Dolphins and Eagles, respectively, and aren't likely to see any changes to their pro careers. With Tagovailoa never ending up at Alabama, Bryce Young never backs off his commitment to USC and ends up signing with the Trojans to be Tua's successor.
DeVonta Smith and Henry Ruggs enter the NFL Draft, leaving Alabama with a weakened receiving room for 2020. Mac Jones takes over for the winningest QB in Tide history, but the 2020 offense is not nearly as dynamic without Smith, Waddle, and Harris.
As a result, Alabama falls in Oxford early in the season to Lane Kiffin and Ole Miss, but finishes 9-1 in the regular season. With a playoff spot on the line, the Crimson Tide falls to Florida in the SEC Championship Game, missing out on the playoff.
Trevor Lawrence leads Clemson to a second National Championship with the Tigers knocking off Ohio State.
Disappointed from the loss to Florida in the SEC Championship, Mac Jones chooses to return to Alabama for the 2021 season. In recruiting, Alabama signs QB Drake Maye to be Jones' heir apparent. Jalen Milroe signs with Texas.
Alabama lands Jameson Williams from the Transfer Portal to give the Tide a much-needed big-play option at WR.
Alabama finishes the regular season with no changes: an 11-1 record with the only blemish coming to Texas A&M in College Station. The Tide falls in Atlanta to Georgia, however, and misses the playoff for a third straight season.
Maye takes over at QB in 2022, and Alabama's running game gets a jolt from the addition of Georgia Tech transfer Jahmyr Gibbs.
Nothing changes in 2022 with Maye instead of Young - Alabama finishes 10-2 and misses the playoff, now for a fourth straight season. The National Championship drought reaches an unprecedented seventh straight year.
Kirby Smart and Georgia win the National Championship for the third time in six years.
Nick Saban contemplates retirement in the offseason, wondering if he still has what it takes in this ever-changing era of college football. He decides to give it one more go in 2023 with a veteran QB returning in Maye.
With an experienced QB, Alabama avoids the September home loss to Texas and runs the table in the regular season. Maye leads the Crimson Tide to a win over Georgia in the SEC Championship and into the College Football Playoff for the first time since 2018 as the No. 1 seed.
Alabama blows out Jordan Travis-less Florida State in the semifinals, and then a big game by Maye leads the Crimson Tide past Michigan in the title game, delivering Saban his Bear Bryant-tying sixth National Championship. Saban still decides to retire, ending his career with a National Championship. But in this alternate reality, his finger is one ring light.