Alabama Basketball got back on track by beating the Kentucky Wildcats. Alabama is now 22-5 and tied with Florida as the SEC's No. 2 team, at 11-3 in league play. Four tough games remain in the regular season; Mississippi State in Tuscaloosa on Tuesday night; at Tennessee on Saturday; Florida in Tuscaloosa on Wed. Mar. 5; and the Iron Bowl of Basketball rematch in Auburn on Sat. Mar. 8.
There are no predictions that the Crimson Tide will finish the regular season with four more wins. Based on ESPN Analytics, Alabama Basketball has a 79% win probability over the Bulldogs and a 60.8% probability of winning at home against the Gators. In the road games, ESPN projects the Crimson Tide has a 33.5% probability of winning in Knoxville and just 22.2% of winning in Auburn.
Though Alabama needs help, the goal of winning the SEC Regular Season Championship still exists. Alabama is in a good position for a coveted double-bye in the SEC Tournament. But more than half of the SEC's teams still have a chance of a double-bye and Alabama has the toughest finishing schedule of them all.
The bigger picture is NCAA Tournament seeding. After Saturday's win, Joe Lunardi moved the Tide down on the 1-seed line to the overall No. 3 seed. Auburn is No. 1, followed by Duke at No. 2, with Florida at No. 4 just behind Alabama. Tennessee is No. 5 overall with the highest 2-seed.
In its NCAA Tournament history, Alabama has been a 2-seed three times, once under Nate Oats. In the 2023 NCAA Tournament, Alabama had its only 1-seed. The Crimson Tide has probably already locked down a 2-seed. If it needs another win for that lock, beating Mississippi State should be sufficient.
Holding on to a 1-seed is far more difficult. No doubt winning three of the next four would do it. Two wins might be enough, especially if the two wins were to come over the Vols and the Gators. Possibly beating the Bulldogs and one of the tougher games would be enough to hold on to a 1-seed.
A repeat of last season for Alabama Basketball?
Some Alabama basketball fans think that given what the Tide did last season, limping into the NCAA Tournament is not a big problem. There is zero chance that Nate Oats agrees.
ESPN Analytics calculates that Alabama as a 2-seed would have the sixth-highest probability of making the Sweet 16, Elite 8, Final Four, and winning the National Championship Game. The five teams above the Crimson Tide are Duke, Houston, Auburn, Tennessee, and Florida.
Note: Alabama NCAA Tournament records provided by Sports Reference