As Alabama Crimson Tide DC Kane Wommack said this week, the Alabama Crimson Tide expects "some wrinkles" from LSU. LSU fans expect the LSU offense to rely more on its run game and ask less of Garrett Nussmeier. Alabama should be prepared for that and some other LSU changes.
Maybe the Bengal Tigers will present a wildly unpredictable, offensive game plan. More realistically, a bye week and a game week is not enough time for radical changes. LSU trying to change too much would likely benefit the Crimson Tide.
It can be expected that the Bengal Tigers will be energized by playing for Frank Wilson. They may also be more at ease than when playing for Brian Kelly and anticipating a tirade at any moment. It would not be shocking for the Bengal Tigers to take an early lead in Tuscaloosa.
Alabama Crimson Tide is the better team
Even if all of the above prove true, it will not be what matters most to the outcome of the game. The game will be about what Alabama does or does not do. More simply, the Crimson Tide is the better team. LSU cannot pull off an upset without help from Alabama. There is almost no reason to expect such a result.
At the risk of oversimplifying, let's compare the teams based on three stats, compliments of Brian Fremeau. Alabama is No. 2 among SEC teams and No. 13 across the FBS in Offensive Points Per Drive at 3.25 points. Only three SEC teams are worse than LSU in per-drive offensive points. Auburn is even better at 2.01 points than the Bengal Tigers at 1.86 points.
In the corollary defensive stat for points per drive, Alabama and LSU are nearly equal, with the Bengal Tigers having a slight edge. Alabama allows 1.81 points per drive, and LSU surrenders 1.76 points. Fremeau's stats are adjusted to not include garbage time possessions.
The telling stat is Net Points Per Drive. Vanderbilt, Alabama, and Texas A&M lead SEC teams in this stat. The Crimson Tide's number is 1.45 points. Only four SEC teams are worse than LSU's 0.1 points. The number of drives per game is down across college football. A sensible game plan for LSU would be to shorten Saturday night's game as much as possible. Even if Alabama gains as few as nine non-garbage possessions, the Crimson Tide should predictably beat LSU by around 12 points.
Games are often not as predictable as computer models suggest. Still, what will matter most on Saturday will be for the Crimson Tide not to beat itself.