Sizing up what will happen between Alabama Football and Oklahoma on Saturday night is not easy. The Sooners are having a disastrous season, with a 5-5 record, losing five of their last seven games. The only wins in that bad run were over Auburn and Maine.
Oklahoma's offensive roster is seriously depleted at wide receiver and running back. The Oklahoma offensive line is the SEC's worst in pass protection, giving up an average of over four sacks a game this season. Against AP-ranked opposition, the Sooners 'Sacks Allowed' average jumps to six per game.
The Alabama Crimson Tide has improved in recent games. Still, in the first eight weeks of the season, Alabama Football was alarmingly inconsistent. In recent games, it appears Alabama has shed inconsistency, but SEC road games offer no guarantees.
The Sooners are outstanding in one area. The Oklahoma rushing defense is one of the nation's best. Against Power Four opponents the Sooners allow only 2.91 yards per rush (No. 2 in the SEC and No. 8 nationally). Against AP-ranked teams the same stat ticks up only slightly to 3.07 yards allowed; No. 3 in the SEC and No. 6 nationally. Ole Miss leads the SEC and is No. 2 in the FBS in that stat. Tennessee is No. 4 in the FBS. In the loss to Tennessee, Alabama gained only 3.03 (sack-adjusted) yards per rush.
The Sooners must believe they can do to Alabama what Tennessee did, including shutting Jalen Milroe's rushing yards. Oklahoma has a front seven capable of causing Alabama problems. It will be interesting to see the Crimson Tide's first-down play choices. The Sooners can pressure quarterbacks, and Alabama needs to minimize 3rd-and-long situations. A possible solution is for Kalen DeBoer's offense to use the passing game to set up the running game. The Sooners have a weak secondary, especially at cornerback. An accurate Jalen Milroe should be able to pick them apart.
Does Oklahoma have an intangible advantage? Will the Sooners be highly motivated to help save Brent Venables' job? Is becoming bowl-eligible a motivation? Or just the opposite, will the Sooners fold if the Crimson Tide jumps out to a two-touchdown lead?
There are plenty of reasons why Alabama Football should win by double digits, but the game is a tough one to predict.
For Alabama football fans who may have missed it, Nick Saban said this week he does not favor Playoff first-round byes. He said, as a coach staying in rhythm (as a first-round host) would be his preference. Saban makes a good point. For the bye teams, the Playoff interval can be 23 days.
Note: Team stats provided by cfbstats.com