An off-day in the Alabama Football practice schedule is a good time to consider what comes in the first month of the season. Neither trip to Atlanta in December nor a Playoff slot will be won in September, but when week five ends on Sept. 27, the SEC's heavyweights will have been defined.
Debate about the SEC's best teams will be fueled by preseason predictions for a few more weeks. Then, in week one, big games will start to reveal teams. Though Texas at Ohio State and LSU at Clemson on Aug. 30 are not must-wins for the SEC teams, the games will be solid measurements of strengths and weaknesses. The Longhorns won't play a real team again until October. LSU losing to Dabo's team would not be a disaster, but going to Oxford in week five and losing to Ole Miss would be. If the Bengal Tigers lose to the Rebels, it would indicate that LSU is probably not a legit SEC Championship contender.
Speaking of legit SEC Championship contenders, a good source is Bill Connelly. Connelly can never be challenged for a paucity of data. The inverse of Connelly as an analytics expert is that he digs so deeply that divining a big picture can sometimes be incomplete. Let's consider just a couple of Connelly's recent SP+ calculations.
Alabama football fans and loving the SP+
Connelly's data gives only three SEC football teams a greater than 9.6% chance to become SEC Champions. Alabama Football is at the top with a 16.1% chance, followed by Georgia at 15.6%, and Texas at 13.6%. LSU is next at 9.6%. If we presume Connelly's calculations are credible, then Sept. 27 in Athens, GA, can become a fast track to the SEC Championship.
More good news for Alabama Crimson Tide fans is that Connelly's SP+ has Bama as the overall best SEC team. His offense and defense ratings give Alabama a small edge over the Bulldogs. Georgia gets an advantage from a slightly easier schedule. Connelly's 9-plus, average wins projection includes only Alabama and Georgia at 9.8 wins, and Texas at 9.6 wins. Ole Miss at 8.9 wins and Tennessee at 8.8 are ahead of LSU at 8.5 wins.
Predicting the chances of any team to win 11-plus games is a big stretch in August. Anyway, Connelly gives Alabama a 30% chance to win 11 or more games. Georgia is at 28.7% and Texas is at 22.9%. Ole Miss is at 10.9% and LSU is further back at just 7%.
What do Connelly's numbers mean for Alabama Football? They show that the Crimson Tide has a real chance to become the SEC's best team. And they show that Sept. 27 in Athens might be the biggest game of the college football regular season.