What to make of Alabama Football missing the CFB Playoff

The bad loss to Oklahoma pushed Alabama Football down to No. 13 in the CFB Playoff rankings. There are two more rankings: Tuesday, Dec. 3, and Sunday, Dec. 8. The Alabama Crimson Tide is still a potential Playoff team—barely. ESPN gives Alabama an 8.2% probability of making the 12-team field. ESPN's algorithm has 18 teams more likely to make the Playoffs than the Crimson Tide.

At least two teams ranked above Alabama would have to lose and the number could be three teams. One needed result is South Carolina beating Clemson. SMU would also need to lose and the only ACC participant must the league champion. USC upsetting Notre Dame might boost Alabama as well, but the Irish would have only two losses and might not slip enough to get Alabama inside the top 11 teams.

Alabama fans would love for Vanderbilt to beat the Tennessee Vols, but with the Tide's loss to UT, the Vols would not drop below Alabama.

Twice this season it has felt as though Alabama Football, under Kalen DeBoer had hit a new low. The first time was the loss to Vandy. The second was Saturday night in Norman, with the Crimson Tide being dominated and producing an embarrassing low of three points.

The 2024 season and the 2007 season are not comparable. Alabama lost six games in Nick Saban's first season, but Saban inherited a talent-depleted roster that lost seven games the season before and a program that lost 24 games during 2003-2006. After the 2007 season, Nick Saban lost 22 games in 16 Alabama Football seasons.

Assuming Alabama wins the Iron Bowl is reasonable. It is also possible a highly motivated Auburn team with newfound momentum pulls off an upset. That result would have to become the final bottom for Kalen DeBoer; a four-loss regular season, which has not happened since 2007.

What Kalen DeBoer started with in Tuscaloosa was miles past Saban's beginning in 2007. DeBoer should not be faulted for not being Nick Saban. Saban's five National Championships in a nine-year run from 2009 through 2017 is a bar almost impossible for any current or future college coach to achieve.

If Alabama wins the Iron Bowl and then doesn't make the first 12-team Playoff field, Kalen DeBoer will have found what should be the bottom for his tenure. A bowl game win or loss would be inconsequential compared to the Alabama Football program unable to make a 12-team Playoff field.

A good many Crimson Tide fans agree with Mark Ingram that Alabama does not deserve a Playoff slot, "When you inherit that kind of roster and when you're in the position that you're in to capitalize and be able to go to the CFP, that was very much attainable."

Alabama Football transitioning from Nick Saban

This perspective is about reality. That does not mean it is gloom and doom. For good reason, many Crimson Tide fans remain confident that Kalen DeBoer can build Alabama into a consistent championship contender. That the road back is rougher than most fans anticipated could be because fan expectations for the 2024 season were unrealistic. Maybe we should have understood that transitioning from Nick Saban was never going to be easy.

Sidestepping gloom and doom should not be hard as long as Alabama beats Auburn. An Iron Bowl loss would feel devastating.