In a surprising and disappointing turn of events, it is not Alabama Football, with the most riding on the Iron Bowl. Barring unforeseen good fortune, the Crimson Tide has two games left in the 2024 season; the Iron Bowl and a bowl trip that will not excite the fanbase.
The situaion for Auburn is different. After upsetting Texas A&M on Saturday night, the Tigers will be playing for a bowl game that would be deemed a celebration.
There is also the bragging rates angle, but that is more for fans than the game participants. The rivalry took off in the 1950s when Paul Bryant returned to Tuscaloosa as the Alabama Football coach. In the 20 games during the 1960s and 1970s, Bryant and his boys were 16-4 against the Tigers. Auburn has had the upper hand in only two decades since. In the 1980s Auburn won six of the 10 games. The 2000s were even worse for the Crimson Tide with the Tigers winning seven games.
Kalen DeBoer does not need to know the history. What he must know and no doubt already does is for any Crimson Tide coach, losing to Auburn is unforgivable. The failure may fade with time, but a win the following season does not erase the blemish.
The considerable heat toasting Kalen DeBoer from the loss to Oklahoma will fade with a solid win over Auburn. Well before next season, as enthusiasm for a new season blossoms, DeBoer will be mostly excused for missing the Playoff in his first Alabama season.
An Alabama loss in the Iron Bowl would not get DeBoer fired, but it would make some (perhaps many) Alabama football fans wish for DeBoer's exit.
A three-loss regular season is considered a disaster for the Crimson Tide. Nick Saban once joked to Steve Spurrier that if he ever lost three games again he would get the axe. Spurrier was not sure Saban was joking.
A four-loss season, with one of the losses to Auburn would be for Alabama Football a cataclysmic event.
Alabama football fans are probably right that Hugh Freeze has been planning for this Iron Bowl since last November. Given that Freeze can apparently only juggle one ball at a time, recruiting and some beach time likely distracted him. Otherwise, Hugh's 50 or so weeks in the making, grand scheme surely includes beating Kalen DeBoer in Tuscaloosa.
Auburn has not won in Tuscaloosa since Gene Chizik was the Auburn coach in the 2010 season. Way back then, when buying quarterbacks was against the rules, Auburn's purported purchase of Cam Newton won not just an Iron Bowl, but a National Championship as well.
Alabama Football as a clear favorite almost always wins the Iron Bowl
The overall series is fairly close between the rivals. Alabama has won 50 times, with Auburn winning 37. According to Sports Reference, when Alabama is ranked and Auburn is not Alabama has won 28 times and Auburn has won once.
The game is important to DeBoer and Freeze. Alabama is at risk from Auburn's players being more highly motivated. Except for the results of last Saturday, Alabama is clearly the better team. But if Alabama plays as it did against Oklahoma and Auburn plays as it did against Texas A&M, Saturday could be a sad day for Crimson Tide fans.