ESPN Analytics gives the Alabama Crimson Tide a 74% probability of beating the Auburn Tigers on Saturday. Bart Torvik's computer model gives Alabama an 80% probability and projects a 94-84 score. After Georgia ended Alabama's eight-game winning streak, the Torvik model projection appears to be more accurate.
Using mred's SEC Tournament calculator, the Crimson Tide will begin the SEC Tournament on Friday, Mar. 16 at 6:00 PM CST. Multiple scenarios remain, with Alabama possibly having to go up against the Georgia Bulldogs again. The other possible opponents are Texas and Texas A&M. All those teams would first have to play on Thursday, against the winner of a Wednesday game.
On Alabama's side of the SEC Tournament bracket should be the Arkansas Razorbacks. The Hogs and the Crimson Tide will be favorites to meet in a Saturday semi-final game.
The Vanderbilt Commodores and the Tennessee Vols will be on Florida's side of the bracket in Nashville.
If the Crimson Tide has to play Georgia again, Alabama's reality check from Tuesday night might have a silver lining. For the Crimson Tide, in another game against the Bulldogs, there should be no surprises. The Crimson Tide will know that Kanon Catchings can explode from a 10-point average to the 32 points he scored against Alabama in Athens.
Alabama SEC Tournament History
Alabama has won two SEC Tournament Championships under Nate Oats, in 2021 and 2023. The Crimson Tide's SEC Tournament record over the past five seasons is 7-3. In the last two tournaments, the Florida Gators have dominated Alabama, winning 102-88 in 2024 and 104-82 last season. The Gators are heavy favorites to win again this season over the other semi-finalists, Alabama, Tennessee, and Arkansas.
The Kentucky Wildcats have not won an SEC Tournament Championship since 2028, but the Cats' number of titles dwarfs all other SEC basketball programs. Kentucky has won the tournament 31 times, going back to the first one in 1933.
Alabama is second to Kentucky with eight SEC Tournament Championships. Five current SEC basketball programs have never won the SEC Tournament Championship: Missouri, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Texas, and Texas A&M.