Alabama Crimson Tide fans have not stopped thinking about the CFB Playoffs at any point during Kalen DeBoer's tenure. Missing out last season has kept the attention both pertinent and a distraction.
Serious talk can move beyond just conjecture on Tuesday, Nov. 4. The CFB Playoff Selection Committee will release its first rankings on that date. The committee will work as 12 members this cycle, rather than the standard 13. Commissioner Randall McDaniel has "stepped away for personal reasons."
Alabama has a Nov. 1 open date, making the South Carolina game the last one before the first rankings release. An 11-1 Alabama team at the end of the regular season will be a lock, no matter what happens in the SEC Championship Game. A 10-2 Alabama team would likely be a lock as well, even if the Tide dropped to 10-3 by losing the SEC Championship Game. If the Crimson Tide finishes the regular season at 9-3, there would be no guarantee an at-large berth would follow.
Every season, there are questions about how the Selection Committee will value teams. This year, the committee has promised to give added attention to the schedules of teams. A metric has been created for the committee to measure schedule strength and theoretically look beyond numbers in a loss column. More than a few college football fans are skeptical.
ESPN Analytics gives the Alabama Crimson Tide an 89.6% probability of making the Playoffs, closely followed by the Texas A&M Aggies at 85.2% and the Georgia Bulldogs at 82.4%. The next highest probabilities for SEC football teams are the Ole Miss Rebels at 48.5% and the Oklahoma Sooners at 43.7%.
Alabama Crimson Tide and Serious Playoff Talk
Perhaps all Playoff talk is serious for Alabama fans, no matter when, and to whatever degree of plausibility. In the range of most serious, talk will ramp up each week from Nov. 4, through the sixth and final Selection Committee rankings on Sunday, Dec. 7. Like every other contender, the Crimson Tide has work to do.
A list of this cycle's Selection Committee members is available here.