One of the greatest joys of watching March Madness is when a team rises from relative obscurity and makes a deep NCAA Tournament run. That is, unless that comes at the expense of your team. Typically, most fans' priority when it comes to March Madness is rooting for your own team first and foremost and then cheering for chaos everywhere else.
It's fun to see the smaller schools with longer odds make deeper than anticipated runs. It also doesn't hurt if your team is a contender to see other contenders get knocked out early by perceived weaker teams.
The 2025 NCAA Tournament will produce upsets. It happens every year. There's a reason it's called March Madness. Things will get crazy as soon as the first ball is tipped on Thursday.
Everyone will spend the next couple of days pouring over data and obsessing over the finer details to try and put together a perfect bracket that will undoubtedly be busted within the first few hours of the first full day of the tournament. But for now, the dream of a perfect bracket and winning bracket challenges left and right is still alive and well.
I've identified five teams most likely to bust your brackets. Five teams that are double-digit seeds that are poised to potentially make a deep run in the Big Dance.
Five double-digit seeds that are ready to bust your bracket
First up, here are two power-conference teams that underachieved during the regular season and barely got into the NCAA Tournament but are plenty talented to make a run:
5. (11) Texas Longhorns: 19-15 overall; KenPom #44
Texas got into the tournament thanks to a pair of wins in the SEC Tournament. They knocked off Vanderbilt and Texas A&M before falling in the quarterfinals to Tennessee and were among the last four teams selected for the Big Dance. Their reward is Dayton and a First Four matchup with Xavier, who ranks one spot ahead of them in KenPom in a game that is effectively a coin flip.
Why they might make a run:
Because Tre Johnson is one of the best players in the country. Sometimes the game is simple. Every year a new March legend or two arises and this year it could very well be Johnson, a likely Top 10 pick in this year's NBA Draft and a player fully capable of putting the Longhorns on his back and leading them out of the first weekend.
Johnson averages just under 20 points per game and has connected on 39% of his three-point attempts. He has plenty of support around him, too, with March Madness veterans Arther Kaluma (Creighton/Kansas State) and Tramon Mark (Houston/Arkansas).
Why they probably won't:
One of Texas' biggest defensive weaknesses is they don't defend the three-point line well. They are 144th in the country in three-point percentage allowed. That could be problematic immediately against an Xavier team that is 6th in the country in three-point percentage (38.8%).
4. (11) North Carolina Tar Heels: 22-13 overall; KenPom #33
Perhaps the most controversial pick by the selection committee was the last team selected, the North Carolina Tar Heels. North Carolina made the tournament despite winning only one Quad 1 game all season long. Too much energy has been wasted debating their merits: they weren't worthy, but they made the tournament for a simple reason: they are North Carolina. Blue bloods get preferential treatment sometimes. Thems the breaks.
That doesn't mean, however, that the Heels aren't capable of making some noise now that they've gotten in. They are as battle-tested as any team in the country despite a down ACC due to a brutal non-conference slate.
Why they might make a run:
Guards win in March and North Carolina has elite guard play. Senior RJ Davis is capable of a legendary tournament run. He leads the team in scoring at 17.0 points per game and is capable of shooting them in - and out - of any game. Junior Seth Trimble and freshman Ian Jackson are also terrific players. Sophomore point guard Elliot Cadeau controls the game and was second in the ACC in assists at six per game.
Their first four opponent in Dayton, San Diego State, defends well but struggles to score the basketball. If Davis and one other guard can play well, the Aztecs will struggle to score enough points to keep up. A win there would put them against 6-seed Ole Miss, a team that thrives on creating turnovers. The Heels are really good at taking care of the baseball and could take away one of the Rebels' biggest strengths.
Why they probably won't:
The Heels have struggled to score against length in the paint. Against San Diego State, they'll see two players - Jared Coleman-Jones and Magoon Gwath - who are elite rim defenders. The Heels get a shot blocked on nearly 11% of their attempts. If they go cold from three, something they've had happen more than a few times this season, they might not be able to get enough points in the paint to compensate for it.
And now, the mid-majors and true Cinderellas:
3. (12) Colorado State Rams: 25-9 overall; KenPom #42
Colorado State enters the NCAA Tournament on a 10-game winning streak. They've gotten hot at the right time and just won the Mountain West with double-digit victories over Utah State and Boise State in back-to-back days.
This team has plenty of NCAA Tournament experience and won a game as a 10-seed last year by blowing out Virginia. The 12-5 upset has been a staple of March Madness for years, and the Rams could be poised to add to it.
Why they might make a run:
Graduate senior guard Nique Clifford is a star and is ready to make himself a household name. Clifford has scored 24+ points in four consecutive games. He plays 35 minutes a night and probably will play all 40 in the tournament, averaging 19.0 points, 9.7 rebounds, and 4.4 assists per game on 51/40/77 shooting splits.
Clifford leads an efficient offensive team that ranks 23rd in the country in effective field goal percentage. They're good - not great - defensively, but they do a great job keeping teams off the offensive glass and limiting them to one shot possessions. That will be key against a Memphis team that loves to attack the glass.
Them beating Memphis wouldn't be an upset, either. The Rams are currently favored by 2.5 points on FanDuel. They're ranked higher than the Tigers in KenPom and Memphis was probably the most over-seeded team in the country relative to their actual strength.
Why they probably won't:
Memphis is an elite shooting team that could get hot and send Colorado State home right away. The Tigers have shot 38% from deep this year and they also rebound 35.1% of their misses. They relentlessly attack the glass and bomb threes. They're not an easy team to play against.
If they get past Memphis, waiting for them will likely be 4-seed Maryland, an elite defensive team that thrives on forcing turnovers. The Rams rank 194th in the country in turnover rate.
2. (12) UC San Diego Tritons: 30-4; KenPom #36
A March Madness newcomer, UC San Diego enters the NCAA Tournament in their first season of eligibility following their four-year transition period moving up from Division II. The Tritons are the champions of the Big West, a league they dominated on the way to a 30-4 record.
Why they might make a run:
Because they value the basketball. The Tritons take care of the ball on offense and force a ton of turnovers on defense. UC San Diego forces a turnover on 23.3% of their defensive possessions, which is 2nd in the country. They only turn it over on 13.4% of their offensive possessions, a mark good for 7th best in the country.
Big West Defensive Player of the Year Hayden Gray leads the nation in steals at 3.2 per game. Chris Howell is over two steals per game, too.
That makes this a nightmare matchup for a Michigan team that is one of the worst in the country at turnovers. The Wolverines rank 328th in the country in turnover percentage on offense.
The Tritons also have a star offensively in Big West Player of the Year Aniwaniwa Tait-Jones who relentlessly puts pressure on the rim and gets to the free-throw line as much as any player in the country. Because of that, he's one of the country's most efficient scorers (64.9 TS%) despite shooting just 31% from three.
Why they probably won't:
The Tritons play a slow pace and they don't have a ton of offensive firepower outside of Tait-Jones. That alone opens them up to a shot-variance defeat that could happen right away against a Wolverines team that is among the most elite teams in the country defensively.
They also do not have a big that matches up well with Michigan's Danny Wolf, who figures to feast down low.
Even if they upset the Wolverines, it would be asking a lot for them to duplicate that by knocking off 4-seed Texas A&M in the second round. The Aggies have a distinct advantage athletically and are likely to be a big problem for the Tritons on the glass.
1. (11) VCU Rams: 28-6 overall; KenPom #30
Ryan Odom is no stranger to leading teams to March Madness upsets. Seven years ago, Odom led 16-seed UMBC to an upset of 1-seed Virginia, the first 16-over-1 in the history of the NCAA Tournament. He quickly turned around Utah State after leaving UMBC, and in his second season as the head coach of VCU, he has the Rams in the tournament and a Top 30 team, per KenPom.
Why they might make a run:
Defense travels, and VCU is an elite defensive team. They lead the nation in effective field goal percentage defense at 44.0%. They allow opponents to hit only 30.6 from three (23rd) and 43.6% from two (4th). They play an aggressive style of defense and are in your grill from tip-off to the final buzzer.
The Rams are deep; Odom plays nine guys 13+ minutes per night. Their only weak point defensively is they foul a lot. They rank 263rd in the country in free throw rate allowed. The good news is their first-round opponent, BYU, doesn't get to the foul line a ton because they'd prefer to jack a million threes.
Veteran guards Max Shulga and Joe Bamisile lead the way in scoring at 15.1 points per game each, but the Rams utilize a by-committee look offensively and don't rely on just one guy to create offense for them.
Why they probably won't:
Well, because they drew a red-hot BYU team in the first round. The Cougars won nine games in a row before running into Houston in the Big 12 Tournament. BYU is an elite shooting team, hitting 37% of their three-pointers on the season and they could get hot and send the Rams home immediately regardless of how well they are defended.
If they do get past BYU, waiting is likely to be 3-seed Wisconsin, which leads the nation in free throw shooting percentage and rarely turns the ball over. The Badgers would be a difficult matchup for the Rams.