Phil Steele is a longtime expert in college football data and predictions. Steele provides so much preseason data that it is a challenge to digest it all. In the 2012-2021 seasons, Steele was the No. 1 preseason magazine for predictions. In 2024, Steele's magazine was No. 2. Even in the occasional seasons when Steele has not been at the top, the depth of his analysis has been unmatched.
In Steele's College Football '26 Preview, he offers different assessments of the Alabama Crimson Tide. In one. his 2026 Power Poll, Steele has Alabama as college football's No. 11 team. His Power Poll is based on team strengths and does not factor a team's schedule. In one of his nine different Power Ratings, Steele has Alabama as the sixth-best SEC team.
Discounting the Alabama Crimson Tide is consistent with the views of many other experts. It is also understandable given doubts about Kalen DeBoer's roster rebuild of multiple position groups, including quarterback.
A markedly different take on the Alabama Crimson Tide
Steele has another, markedly different take on the Crimson Tide. It gives credence to a narrative that optimistic Alabama football fans believe. Beginning in 2001, Steele has been predicting 'Surprise Teams'. Steele defines them as "a NON-Preseason AP Top 10 team that I think has a decent shot at making the playoff and even winning the national championship." Steele picked 12 surprise teams for the 2026 season. Three SEC football teams are included, and No. 1 on the list of 12 is the Alabama Crimson Tide.
Despite eight losses in two Alabama seasons, Steele has confidence in Kalen DeBoer. He reminds fans that DeBoer took a "less talented" Washington team to a National Championship Game. Steele points out a more "beefed up" defensive line and Alabama's strong secondary. He is optimistic that Alabama will produce a stronger running game and is undeterred by the Crimson Tide having no proven quarterback.
Steele points out that since he began this feature in 2001, only five teams not in the preseason AP Top-10 have won the national championship. Four of them were surprise teams picked by Steele.
The other surprise SEC teams chosen by Steele were No. 3 Oklahoma and No. 11 Tennessee.
Which team is Alabama? A team that may struggle to make the Playoff field? Or a team that can truly contend for a national championship? Any answer will be driven by perspective. Going into the season, the Crimson Tide is both. Steele's SEC prediction rankings suggest optimism is warranted. He predicts the Crimson Tide as the SEC's No. 3 team.
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