Game predictions with exact scores are a dime a dozen during March Madness. It is not hard to find 'experts' picking BYU to win. Credible computer models predict an Alabama Basketball win. I trust Alabama and the computers for three main reasons.
Much has been said about the Crimson Tide being a poor defensive team. Against an SEC schedule, Alabama's defensive weaknesses made it vulnerable against top teams. But as Ken Pomeroy calculates, Alabama Basketball at No. 29 is a decidedly better defensive team than BYU at No. 72. The Cougars are a dangerous three-point shooting team, but Alabama is No. 23 nationally in opponent three-point percentage at 30.5%. The Crimson Tide's biggest defensive weakness throughout the season has been defending pick-and-rolls. BYU is adept at running them. While that dynamic may keep the game close, it will not be enough to propel BYU to victory.
Alabama Basketball and BYU Tempo
Game predictions vary about whether BYU should try to slow Alabama's tempo. Some 'experts' suggest the Cougars can play at the Tide's pace. It is correct that BYU likes to get out on the break, and they are good at scoring in transition. Overall, BYU is not close to Alabama in tempo. Ken Pomeroy's calculation has Alabama as college basketball's No. 1 tempo team, while BYU is No. 178. To slow Bama's tempo, BYU must produce defensive rebounds. The Cougars are a good rebounding team, but Alabama is as good or better. So, no advantage for the Cougars.
BYU is a good three-point shooting team. On the season, they make 37.3%, compared to Alabama at 35%. As mentioned above, Alabama is generally good at defending threes. The Crimson Tide will have to be against BYU. But unless the Cougars hit a percentage in the high 40s, while Alabama is in the low 30s, Alabama's tempo and will yield enough extra possessions to make up a point deficit from outside the arc. If Alabama sizzles from three, the game could turn into a blowout, or at least, a double-digit Crimson Tide win.
Many predictions compare BYU to Kentucky, with better long-range shooting. Actually, the two teams are nearly equal in three-point accuracy on the season. The Wildcats are a better defensive team than BYU. There is very little reason to think Thursday night's outcome will be different from the three wins Alabama had over Kentucky.
Note: Team stats provided by ncaa.com, Ken Pomeroy, and Sports Reference