Based on betting odds, Alabama Football has the fourth-best odds to make the CFB Playoff. Alabama is actually tied with LSU, which makes it tempting to believe the loser at Tiger Stadium on Nov. 7 will miss the Playoff field. The SEC will not get five Playoff teams, and if FanDuel's odds prove correct, Georgia, Texas, and Texas A&M will make the Playoff field. If the Crimson Tide and the Bengal Tigers battle for the fourth spot, it makes sense that the loser would no longer be a Playoff contender.
June odds and November odds will be different. Instead of using June odds to predict Alabama's Playoff chances, let's consider what Alabama can and cannot do to make the 12-team field. While it is unlikely a three-loss Alabama would advance to Atlanta, if it did, the Crimson Tide could not lose the SEC Championship Game. The CFB Playoff Selection Committee would not make history by including a four-loss Alabama team.
What the Crimson Tide can do is beat every team it should beat, plus beat one top SEC playoff contender. A 10-2 Crimson Tide, with a win over either Georgia, Texas A&M, or LSU, would be a Playoff lock. Even with a slip along the way, a 9-3 Crimson Tide, including one win against the Bulldogs or Aggies, or Bengal Tigers, and no December trip to Atlanta, would make the Playoff.
What 'Will' Happen for Alabama Football?
Alabama football fans are less interested in what 'should' or 'would' happen. Instead, what 'will' happen motivates seeking out every credible source of college football predictions. One good source is Chris Low, who defines Texas and Georgia as the SEC's "Best Bets" to make the playoffs. Low lists five more SEC teams as "Serious Contenders": Texas A&M, Ole Miss, Oklahoma, Alabama, and LSU.
Another normally good source is The Sporting News' Bill Bender. Bender's preseason Top 25 rankings have the Crimson Tide at No. 16. His ranking projects Alabama as the SEC's sixth-best team. Few Alabama fans will agree. A more recent post by Bender sheds doubt on how accurately he views Alabama and the rest of the SEC. Bender argues that the Crimson Tide has the SEC's easiest schedule. No Alabama fan will agree.
My take is that Alabama will prevail against a not-easy schedule with a 10-2 or 9-3 regular season record and make the playoffs.
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