Early on a Saturday, Alabama Football Gameday, there are reasons to predict an Alabama Crimson Tide victory. There are also reasons for predicting a Georgia win. I am uncharacteristically ambivalent. In my long span of following Alabama Football, no matter the opponent, I have always latched onto late-week reasons why Alabama would win.
I have plenty of reasons for tonight's game winner. Unfortunately, I have victory reasons for Alabama and Georgia.
A talent disparity favoring either side is not a reason. The teams are blessed with deep, talented rosters. Each team has strengths and lesser strengths, along with some weaknesses within position groups. Rating nine position groups, including Special Teams, the Bulldogs might have a slight talent edge. Alabama has an edge in player experience, especially in this game when the Bulldogs might have to start two freshmen offensive linemen.
Despite Kirby Smart's unquestioned success, I am not sure the Bulldogs have a coaching advantage. What the Dawgs do have is an ingrained knowledge of what they are. Alabama is a work in progress.
My hunch is that Alabama in November will be a better team than Georgia. That means nothing for this Saturday night.
Why the Georgia Bulldogs Will Win
- Even with offensive line upheaval, Georgia could pound the ball on the ground. The Georgia rushing offense is styled to succeed against an Alabama defense that, for almost a year of games, has been plagued by missed tackles. There is little chance Tim Keenan III is close to 100% and how many snaps he is in condition to play is in question.
- The Sanford Stadium crowd could give Alabama's offensive line the yips. That is another old, Alabama road game problem.
- Georgia's defense is not as fearsome as it has been in recent seasons. Still, they get off the field after third down far better than does the Crimson Tide.
- Georgia has Peyton Woodring, who could be the difference in a close game.
- Under Kalen DeBoer, Alabama is 2-5 in road games.
- This last one is a troubling hunch. It takes a lot of grit to get down two touchdowns early and win in Neyland Stadium. Yes, the Vols missed a winning field goal, but Georgia, like its head coach, has a reservoir of grit.