Tennessee head coach Josh Heupel knows what Alabama will bring to Knoxville. On Monday, he said, "They’re big, strong, athletic. They’re playing physical. They’re playing smart football. It’s gonna take us being at our best to go get a win." In this case, the typical praise for an opponent is more than coach-speak. Heupel must know his team is at a tipping point.
The previously vaunted Tennessee offense is in disarray. After giving second-year player George MacIntyre his first start last week against Arkansas, Heupel will not disclose who will start at quarterback against Alabama. The Tennessee site All for Tennessee has repeated stories about Heupel making a big mistake if he goes back to freshman Faizon Brandon as the starter.
After Brandon blistered Furman, with 226 passing yards and three touchdowns, Tennessee fans saw a Heisman in his future. In the Vols' second game against Georgia Tech, his accuracy faltered to 47.6%. His progress has been downhill since.
Heupel knows he needs every edge he can get against Alabama. Apparently, he thinks Kane Wommack having to prepare his defense for Brandon and MacIntyre might give him one.
Until his start against the Razorbacks, MacIntyre had thrown only 29 college passes. He did well in relief of Brandon against Auburn, completing 8 of 10 passes. The Vols did not need much from him to beat the Tigers. Tennessee running back DeSean Bishop ran for 220 yards.
Alabama vs. Tennessee Computer Model Predictions
Alabama win predictions range from four to nine points: Brian Fremeau (30.6-21.2); Kenneth Massey (34-28); Jeff Sagarin (32.87-26.02); and Bill Connelly (30-26). Connelly's SP+ model ranks Alabama No. 8. The other models (including ESPN's FPI) rank the Crimson Tide at No. 3, No. 4, or No. 5.
Fremeau's FEI efficiency rankings show why Alabama is a solid favorite over the Vols. The FEI has Alabama's offense and defense ranked No. 6 in efficiency. The Vols are ranked No. 16 in defensive efficiency and No. 31 in offensive efficiency.
Neyland Stadium is traditionally a tough environment for visiting teams. An early Alabama lead on Saturday would lessen that Vols' advantage. Tennessee fans, apparently anxious about their team's chances, may be close to running out of patience with Heupel. In his five Tennessee seasons, Heupel has led the Vols to the Playoff only once. And the one was an embarrassing 42-17 loss to Ohio State. The once popular label Vol fans gave Heupel, 'Offensive Savant', is not being used this season.
Note: Player stats provided by Sports Reference
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