Yahoo Sports' Jay Busbee picked the Alabama loss to Tennessee as the second-most damaging loss of Week 7. The most damaging was the Texas home loss to Florida.
Busbee wrote, "... even in a watered-down era, losses don't just leave a mark on your record. The worst can leave a mark on your soul, staining the entire perception of a program, injecting doubt into the locker room and the stands." He wasn't just commenting on Alabama, but his words are a match for the current state of the Crimson Tide program.
Alabama can recover with a five-game winning streak. Alabama is favored by ESPN's FPI model in four of the five games. For what it's worth, ChatGPT calculates the probability of Alabama winning all five as 15%. The same source calculates the probability of Alabama finishing the regular season at 9-3 as 38%.
Can Alabama outperform the AI predictions? Three current computer models provide a degree of optimism that the answer could be yes.
Alabama and current computer models
After the loss to Tennessee, Bill Connelly's SP+ and Kenneth Massey's ratings downgraded the Crimson Tide. Connelly's model moved Alabama down four spots to No. 12. Massey's ratings moved the Crimson Tide down five spots to No. 10.
ESPN's FPI moved the Crimson Tide down only one spot to No. 6. Jeff Sagarin's model also has Alabama at No. 6. Brian Fremeau's FEI model moved Bama from No. 3 to No. 4. Why does the FEI continue to rate Alabama so highly? The FEI calculations rate the Crimson Tide with college football's toughest schedule. Specifically, Fremeau's model breaks down Strength of Schedule (SOS) into three measurements. Alabama is No. 1 in two of them, and No. 2 in the third.
Fremeau also breaks down Strength of Record (SOR) into three measurements. In those, Alabama ranks No. 2, No. 9, and No. 19.
Alabama's 'perception' problem is that 'eye tests' of the Tennessee game produce nothing but failing grades. Jay Busbee added about Week 7 upsets, "Long after the last warm days of October are a memory, some of these losses are going to haunt teams deep into December and beyond." Which is why Alabama must finish the regular season on a five-game winning streak. Otherwise, a 9-3 will be unfavorably viewed by the Playoff Selection Committee's eye test of the Tennessee game.
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