Without winning the SEC Basketball Tournament Alabama Basketball will not regain an NCAA Tournament 1-seed unless the Tide beats Florida on Wednesday night. This perspective is based on a loss to Auburn on Saturday in the cracker-box gym that intimidates SEC officials. Alabama could pull off an IBOB upset but it is not likely.
The good news is a win over Florida would give the Crimson Tide a good chance of regaining a 1-seed in NCAA Tournament projections. For many college basketball fans, following bracket projections does not go beyond ESPN's Joe Lunardi and CBS Sports' Jerry Palm. They do a good job in the crazy world of Bracketology, but every season dozens of lesser-known bracketologists are more accurate than Palm and Lunardi. Many of the lesser-knowns did not bump Alabama down to a 2-seed after the loss to Tennessee as Lunardi and Palm did.
The excellent source for all the 'lesser knowns' is the Bracket Matrix from the Bracket Project. More than 175 bracketologists regularly submit brackets and the site ranks their success by season, and more importantly, based on five seasons of projections. Ranked No. 1 in the current 5-season average is Yago Brackets. The most recent bracket by Yago was submitted on Mar. 2, and it still had the Crimson Tide as a 1-seed, with Tennessee as a 2-seed. There are 79 brackets in the matrix that are more recent, having been submitted on Mar. 3. and 45 of them still have the Crimson Tide as a 1-seed. More than a few are of dubious value, but in the 79 are some very good Bracketologists.
The point is Alabama Basketball is close to regaining traction as a projected 1-seed. A win over Florida is probably all that is needed. A loss to Florida and Auburn would leave Alabama with a slim chance of being a 1-seed on Selection Sunday.
Why seeding matters to Alabama Basketball
History provides the answer to why seeding matters. Since the NCAA Tournament expanded in 1985, a 1-seed has won it all 64.1% of the time. A 2-seed has won the title game 12.8% of the time and a 3-seed, 10.3%. The percentages are slightly higher for a 2-seed or a 3-seed to make the National Championship Game. Describing the probabilities more generally, a 1-seed is four to six times more likely to win the title game than a 2-seed or 3-seed.
Below the top three seed lines, National Championship success is minimal. Again going back to 1985: 1-seeds have won 25 championships, 2-seeds five, 3-seeds four, 4-seeds two, 5-seeds zero, 6-seeds one, 7-seeds one, and 8-seeds one.
The bottom line is the Alabama Crimson Tide really needs to beat Florida.