Like many college football fans, Alabama Crimson Tide fans love computer models that favor the Tide and hate models that don't. In the Third Saturday in October Week, there is a lot for Alabama football fans to love.
It is worthwhile to remember what computer models provide. They provide valuable insight into probabilities. They provide no certainty. Numbers vary based on certain models, but generally, a computer model will accurately project the point spread in a game around 60% of the time. The percentage of models being wrong around 40% of the time might qualify them as dangerous rat poison.
Alabama Crimson Tide Rat Poison
Alabama's rat poison for Tennessee week comes from Brian Fremeau, Jeff Sagarin, and the Massey Ratings. Sagarin has Alabama beating Tennessee 42-28, with a 77% probability. The Massey Ratings have the Crimson Tide winning 35-28, with a 68% probability. Brian Fremeau's model projects a 33-22 Alabama win with a 77% probability.
Some additional thoughts on computer models, which may cause them to devalue the Alabama Crimson Tide somewhat. Alabama is not an efficient running team. The Crimson Tide's average yards-per-carry of 3.67 yards ranks No. 108 among FBS teams. Considering that weakness, the reason Alabama is rated highly in offensive efficiency is due to Ryan Grubb and Ty Simpson.
In third-down situations needing 1-3 yards, Alabama has run the ball 33 times and produced an average of 2.36 yards. That production ranks Alabama No. 111 among FBS teams. In the same third-down situation, Alabama has passed 10 times and made a first down nine times. Small sample sizes limit the value of this analysis, but the limited data suggest that Alabama does not fit the normal standard of required success running the football. Making a first down in short yardage via a pass at 90% success more than makes up for only 42.4% success when running for the first down.
If the 'additional thoughts' have any merit, should Alabama football fans be concerned that Jam Miller may not play against the Vols? Getting to 3rd-and-short and making the first down with a pass is unlikely to happen when the Tide's running game is neutralized on first downs. No Jam Miller could be significant, though the Alabama football staff seems to have renewed confidence in Daniel Hill.
The reason why the models are so bullish on the Crimson Tide can be explained by Fremeau's Efficiency Ratings. In opponent-adjusted Offensive Efficiency, Alabama is No. 5 nationally, the Vols are No. 15. In opponent-adjusted Defensive Efficiency, Alabama is No. 11 and Tennessee is No. 22. Take those ratings and add 3.5 points for a Bryant-Denny crowd, and the score projections make sense.
Note: Data provided by cfbstats.com