Conventional wisdom across the college football world is that the Indiana Hoosiers have a huge advantage over the Alabama Crimson Tide at the quarterback position. Not only is Indiana's QB, Fernando Mendoza, the Heisman Trophy winner, but he has been more consistent throughout the season than Ty Simpson.
Mendoza is a worthy winner of the Heisman, the Maxwell Trophy, and the Walter Camp Award. The thing is that when Simpson played his best, he wasn't far behind Mendoza. The teams had one common 2025 opponent: the Wisconsin Badgers. Against the Badgers, Mendoza was 22-for-24 in the Hoosiers 11th game of the season. He passed for 299 yards with four touchdowns and no interceptions. In Alabama's third game of the season, Simpson was 24-for 29 and passed for 382 yards, with four touchdowns and no interceptions.
Mendoza's Passing Efficiency Rating (PER) against Wisconsin was 251.3; against the Badgers, Simpson's PER was 238.9.
Stats from one game can mislead. Let's dive deeper into Mendoza's other game performances. In 13 wins, Mendoza has 33 touchdown passes and six interceptions. To compare, in Joe Burrow's 2019 Heisman season, the LSU QB threw 60 touchdown passes.
A fair question is whether Mendoza's numbers are inflated by playing against so many mediocre defenses. Using Brian Femeau's opponent-adjusted Defensive Efficiency Rating, the Hoosiers have played against only three top-15 defenses. Currently ranked, the top three teams are Ohio State (No. 1), Oregon (No. 7), and Iowa (No. 9). In the same ratings, Alabama is ranked No. 10.
Against the Buckeyes, Ducks, and Hawkeyes, Mendoza passed for a total of four touchdowns and had three interceptions. His other 29 touchdown passed and three interceptions came in games against opposing defenses ranked No. 24 (Wisconsin), No. 25 (ODU), No. 41 (Maryland), No. 43 (Penn State), No. 54 (illinois), No. 70 (Michigan State), No. 71 (Purdue), No. 88 (UCLA), and No. 101 (Kennesaw State). The Hoosiers' other regular-season opponent was FCS Indiana State.
Alabama Crimson Tide Defense will challenge Mendoza
The point is not that Mendoza has not faced many defensive opponents as good or better than Alabama. Rather, it is that against top 10 defenses, Mendoza has not performed at the level of the AP Player of the Year.
Maybe, and admittedly it is a stretch, given Alabama's pass protection and pass-catching weaknesses - but maybe, the best performing quarterback in the Rose Bowl will be Ty Simpson.
Note: Player stats provided by Sports Reference