Ty Simpson’s reputation has done a full 180 since Alabama’s Week 1 loss to Florida State. He was perfect against Louisiana Monroe in his second career start and didn’t cool off until the second half of the Crimson Tide’s 24-21 win over Georgia on Saturday.
Simpson beat the Bulldogs, as his predecessor Jalen Milroe and plenty of other former Alabama quarterbacks have, but now he needs to do what Milroe didn’t: beat Vanderbilt the next week. Though the Commodores are much better than a year ago, when they shocked the No. 1-ranked Tide, it’s the perfect opportunity for a Ty Simpson masterclass that could make him the clear Heisman Trophy favorite.
Kane Wommack may force Ty Simpson to win a shootout
For the first time since 1938, No. 10 Alabama and No. 16 Vanderbilt will play head-to-head as ranked opponents. Diego Pavia’s Commodores are 5-0 and are bringing College Gameday to Tuscaloosa with them, as the shine came off Florida State’s matchup with Miami in Week 6 after the Seminoles fell to Virginia on Friday.
Now, Milroe wasn’t the reason that Alabama lost to Vanderbilt for the first time since 1984 last year. He threw for 310 yards and a touchdown with another score on the ground, and despite an interception, the Tide offense put up 35 points. It was Kane Wommack’s defense that was helpless to stop Pavia.
Wommack has time and again proven to be outmatched by mobile quarterbacks, as he was in Week 1 against Tommy Castellanos and Florida State. So, Simpson, like Milroe, could be tasked with winning a shootout, and with Alabama’s lack of a run game, nearly all of that responsibility will fall on his shoulders. If he can carry it, he could stake a claim as the best player in college football, and the Vanderbilt defense may ease some of that burden.
Simpson's third-down success should continue
Just as the Alabama defense is a favorable matchup for Pavia, Vandy’s unit doesn’t hold up well against what Simpson does best. The Commodores’ defense ranks 88th in EPA/pass and 83rd in passing success rate, while checking in at a stout 6th and 47th, respectively, against the run. With a pass-heavy attack and a talented group of wide receivers, Simpson should put up big numbers, but it’ll be the late-down efficiency that continues to separate him as one of the best passers in the nation.
Last week against Georgia, while Gunner Stockton converted just one late-down through the air, and two total for the game, Simpson managed a 64 percent passing success rate on late downs with 0.53 late-down EPA/play. Alabama finished 13-for-20 on third and fourth-down conversions and went 9-for-11 in the first half when it scored all 24 of its points.
The Vanderbilt defense, like Georgia’s, which is lacking a dominant pass rusher, is susceptible on third downs. So far this year, Steve Gregory’s defense ranks 101st in the nation in third-down success rate (45.5%), despite ranking 10th in average distance at 8.21 yards. That means long conversions through the air for Simpson, possibly en route to a high-scoring victory. With College Gameday in town, that has all the makings of a Heisman moment for the QB who currently has the second-best odds to win the award, only trailing Oregon’s Dante Moore.