College football seats are so hot in Gainesville and Stillwater that whiffs of a conflagration are in the air. The axe could fall on Billy Napier and Mike Gundy at any time. Florida and Napier have a tipping point game Saturday night in Baton Rouge.
Another Florida loss, with the Gators drawing Miami, Texas, and Texas A&M in their following three games, could mean a quick exit for Napier.
Napier is 60-31 in his head coaching career, including 40-12 in four seasons with Louisiana. In his fourth Florida season, Napier is 20-20. Napier was nearly kicked out the door last season, before winning four straight to finish 8-5. The start of the four-win run was an upset of LSU in Gainesville. A week later, Florida took down No. 9-ranked Ole Miss.
There was so much optimism in Gainesville that Napier's seat was not even warm at the start of the 2025 season. Last Saturday, the situation dramatically changed. South Florida beat the Gators in The Swamp, 18-16.
A fixture of Napier's Florida career has been brutal schedules. From No. 3 in Strength of Schedule (SOS) in 2022, the weakest schedule under Napier was No. 8 in 2023. ESPN projects that the Gators will face college football's toughest schedule this season.
SEC Football Teams Struggle After National Championship Coaches Exit
The Florida program has twice struggled to replace National Championship head coaches. It happened with Steve Spurrier and with Urban Meyer. Will Muschamp, Jim McElwain, and Dan Mullin each had double-digit win seasons in Gainesville. Mullin had two in his four Florida seasons. None of the three won an SEC Championship Game. All three were cut loose by the Gators, as Napier is almost guaranteed to be. Napier has the worst performance of the quartet of coaches. He faces not an 'if' situation, but 'when' instead.
An approximate buyout of $20M will not deter Florida from making a move. The two names most often mentioned as the next Florida head coach are Jon Gruden and Lane Kiffin. Gruden has been vocal about wanting to coach again.
College football fans and experts believe if Florida pursues Kiffin that Lane will not hesitate to leave Ole Miss. The Gators will need him sooner than later. Would Kiffin made the move before the end of the Ole Miss season? With his Transfer Portal acumen and Florida's bigger financial resources, Kiffin could turn the Gators around quickly. While he did so, the Ole Miss program could quickly flounder.
Note: Florida head coach history provided by Sports Reference