Next man up is always a worthwhile team goal. Still, for Alabama Basketball, there is no substitute equal to the skills of Aden Holloway. No Holloway changes Alabama's offensive potency. Is the change so dramatic that Nate Oats will adjust Alabama's offensive style?
An old story that bears repeating is that Alabama is not a 'live by the three, die by the three' team. Nate Oats recently explained that the Crimson Tide's offensive scheme is designed for efficiency. "We play the most efficient basketball we possibly can... We scored 58 points in the paint. If we had made some free throws, we would've scored 100 on them."
Still, more than 53% of Alabama's field goal attempts are threes. Aden Holloway was Alabama's most accurate three-point shooter at 42.9% in SEC games. Next for Alabama is Laatrell Wrightsell at 41.4%, Amari Allen at 39.5%, Labaron Philon at 36.9%, Aiden Sherrell at 35%, Houston Mallettee at 34.6%, and London Jemison at 33.3%.
Going back into the 20th century, the stats are consistent. Teams that shoot more threes than twos do not become NCAA Tournament Champions. Without Aden Holloway, Alabama is not an NCAA Tournament Championship contender. The Crimson Tide probably was not a contender before Holloway's suspension. Going back to Alabama's blowout loss to Florida in early February, some Crimson Tide fans have thought Alabama's ceiling was an Elite Eight berth. Without Holloway, expectations have dropped to making the Sweet 16.
Not only has Holloway led Alabama in three-point shooting at 42.9% in SEC games, but he has also been Alabama's top free-throw shooter at 82.5% in SEC games. He was also Alabama's No. 2 assist-maker.
An Alabama Basketball Moneyball Hope
Alabama basketball fans hope Holloway's production can be replaced in the aggregate by more production from Wrightsell, Mallette, Allen, and possibly Jahlil Bethea. Unfortunately, Wrightsell, Allen, and Mallette have been in shooting slumps. In the Tide's most recent four games, Allen is 1-for-13. Mallettee is 3-for-12. Latrell Wrightsell is 0-for-9 in Alabama's last two games. In limited action during the SEC regular season, Bethea shot threes at just 23.1%.
Alabama gaining increased three-point production from Taylor Bol Bowen or Noah Williamson would be a pleasant surprise, but an unexpected one.
Nate Oats has defined an optimistic theme, saying. "I did tell our team, this team, more than any team I've ever coached, is better equipped to handle a situation like this." It could well be true that the Crimson Tide's tight-knit roster will rise to considerable challenge.
Note: Player stats provided by Sports Reference