Alabama Basketball: A month to Selection Sunday Tide a bubble team no more

Alabama Basketball is perched high above the NCAA Bubble. Why, and where other SEC teams stand a month before Selection Sunday.

In the context of Alabama Basketball history, the Crimson Tide is not where it has never been before. In 1987 and 2002, the Alabama Crimson Tide entered the ‘Big Dance’ as No. 2 seeds. One month away from Selection Sunday, almost every bracket guru has the Tide projected as a No. 2 seed again.

Let’s review why the Tide is where it is today, and how solid the Tide’s NCAA seeding is, as the regular season winds down. A summary of other SEC teams and their status of above or in the current NCAA Bubble is included.

The NCAA NET ranking algorithm calculates many data points. The easiest way to understand it is to review the quadrant records of similar teams. Warren Nolan’s site has a detailed breakdown of the NCAA NET status of all 348 Division One teams.

The Sunday (daily) NET ranking for the Crimson Tide is No. 9, though most bracketologists agree with Saturday’s Top 16 seeds NCAA release with the Tide as No. 7 and the third-highest rated No. 2 seed.

NCAA Quad 1 and Quad 2 Wins for Top Teams

• Gonzaga – Seven Quad One and Four Quad Two wins
• Baylor – Six Quad One and Two Quad Two wins
• Michigan – Four Quad One and Four Quad Two wins
• Illinois – Six Quad One and Four Quad Two wins
• Houston – Two Quad One and Three Quad Two wins
• Alabama Crimson Tide – Six Quad One and Four Quad Two wins
• Ohio State – Eight Quad One and 2 Quad Two wins
• Virginia – Three Quad One and Five Quad Two wins
• Iowa – Four Quad One and Four Quad Two wins
• Wisconsin – Three Quad One and Five Quad Two wins
• Villanova – Two Quad One and Three Quad Two wins
• Tennessee – Four Quad One and One Quad Two wins
• Oklahoma – Five Quad One and One Quad Two wins
• Arkansas – Two Quad One and Six Quad Two wins
• LSU – Three Quad One and One Quad Two wins
• Florida – Three Quad One and Four Quad Two wins

Gonzaga leads college basketball with its 11 Quad One and Quad Two wins balanced against zero losses. In combined wins against top opponents, Alabama Basketball, along with Ohio State and Illinois are close behind the Zags with 10 wins.

Losses also matter, but Quad One losses are far less damaging to a team’s resume. For example, Iowa has five Quad One losses but is No. 8 in the NCAA NET ranking.

The reason the Crimson Tide is so far above the ‘bubble’ zone of teams is good wins and zero bad losses. In past seasons, the Crimson Tide has hovered around the ‘in’ or ‘out’ bubble with the main reason why being Quad Three and Quad Four losses.

More: Why NCAA Tournament seeding matters

Technically, the Crimson Tide has not locked up an NCAA bid yet. It needs two or three wins to get there. Assuming no games are canceled, the Tide has between six and eight games to get the two or three wins.

Win four or five and the Crimson Tide will remain a high seed in the NCAA Tournament. The SEC is on track to get six teams, with none of the six currently in the bubble. Ole Miss is the SEC’s only bubble team. The RebelBearSharks have a rescheduled game against LSU on Wednesday that will be important to both teams.

That Nate Oats has Alabama Basketball where it stands today is extraordinary. Oats’ offensive style gets most of the notice but it is the Crimson Tide defense that is fast making it an elite team.

What will happen in the NCAA Tournament? A sound guess is the Tide is a solid Sweet 16 team, with a chance to make the Elite Eight. It is not crazy to believe a Final Four is a possibility. It does not matter to Nate Oats and his players but history is not on their side. The Tide’s 2002, No. 2 seed team was easily beaten by Kent State in a second-round upset. In 1987, the Tide advanced to the Sweet 16 and was then trounced by Providence, 103-82.