Alabama Football: CFB Playoff Projection after Week Six

Where would Alabama Football be ranked if the CFB Playoff Selection Committee published its first ranking after week six? The Selection Committee will not publish its first rankings until the Tuesday following week 10 of college football. So to answer the question after week six, fans are left with only projections.

There is no shortage of projections. What follows is one tailored for Alabama football fans that attempts to reasonably assess the top ten teams in the Playoff hunt. The ten selected include three one-loss teams and do not include six remaining undefeated FBS teams. Five of the six do not have resumes (even if they remain undefeated) to get them into the final Playoff field of four. One undefeated team, not in the top 10 because of its poll ranking and not having any wins over ranked teams, is Oklahoma State. If the Cowboys become undefeated Big 12 Champions, they could make the final four.

The analysis is simply based on wins and losses against ranked teams. That is teams currently ranked in the AP Poll. The process could have been complicated by adding the Coaches Poll and even other polls, but the two main polls do not have significant inconsistencies.

Three of the top 10 below have not played a ranked team. Iowa has the best win over a ranked team by beating No. 7 Penn State. Alabama Football is the only team in the top 10 with two wins over ranked teams. Four of the 10 teams have no wins over ranked teams.

Projected (post-week six) College Football Playoff Rankings

1. Georgia Bulldogs (6-0)– The Bulldogs have one ranked win over No. 17 Arkansas.
2. Iowa Hawkeyes (6-0) – The Hawkeyes have one a ranked win over No. 7 Penn State.
3.  Cincinnati Bearcats (5-0) – The Bearcats have one ranked win over No. 14 Notre Dame.
4. Oklahoma Sooners (6-0) – The Sooners have one ranked win over No. 25 Texas.
5. Alabama Crimson Tide (5-1) – The Crimson Tide has two wins over ranked teams, No. 13 Ole Miss and No. 20 Florida, plus a loss to No. 21 Texas A&M.
6. Ohio State Buckeyes (5-1) – The Buckeyes slip into the sixth spot largely because of poll ranking. They have no wins over ranked teams and a loss to No. 9 Oregon.
7. Penn State Nittany Lions (5-1) – Penn State has no wins over ranked teams and a loss to No. 2 Iowa.
8. Michigan Wolverines (6-0) – The Wolverines have no wins over ranked teams.
9. Michigan State Spartans (6-0) – The Spartans have no wins over ranked teams.
10. Kentucky Wildcats (6-0) – The Wildcats have one win over No. 20 Florida.

Getting from 11 teams (including Oklahoma State) to four will sort itself out largely by head-to-head matchups. Penn State, Ohio State, Michigan and Michigan State have multiple games against each other in the regular season.

Alabama Football on a good position

According to the ESPN FPI, Alabama Football currently has the third-highest chance of making the Playoff at 53.9 percent. The Crimson Tide controls its own destiny. Having two wins over ranked teams, plus the chance of at least one more in the SEC Championship game would put the Tide in a strong position on Selection Sunday in December.

What weakens the Tide’s Playoff prospects is that against the Aggies, it too often did not look like an elite team. There is plenty of season left for the Tide to show otherwise.