Every offseason, the primary measurement of how good next season’s teams will be, is returning production. Based on that sole calculation, the Alabama Crimson Tide will not be one of CFB’s top teams. The Tide returns just 40% of its production from last season, making Alabama Dead Last in the SEC and No. 125 among all FBS teams.
Coming to a drastically different conclusion about the Crimson Tide’s 2023 prospects, 247Sports ranked the top 10 defenses for next season. Though Alabama returns just 38% of its defensive production, 247’s Robbie Weinstein projected the Alabama Crimson Tide as the nation’s No. 2 defense next season.
The difference in the 247 rankings is the inclusion of additional measurements, beyond returning production. FBS teams were ranked on the basis of five categories.
- 2022 Defensive Stats
- Returning Production
- Recruiting
- Strength of Schedule
- Computer Metrics
SEC Top Returning Defensive Production
- Missouri Tigers – 80%
- Texas A&M Aggies – 77%
- Auburn Tigers – 71%
- Georgia Bulldogs – 70%
- Tennessee Vols – 69%
- Ole Miss Rebels – 62%
- LSU Bengal Tigers – 60%
It is possible that for defenses that struggled in the 2022 season, returning production means another season of inconsistent and ineffective performance. Ole Miss was No. 9 in the SEC last season in Scoring Defense. Auburn was No. 12. In average yards allowed, Auburn at 5.52 yards was No. 10 in the SEC. Auburn and Texas A&M were No. 11 and No. 12 in yards-per-carry Rushing Defense. Tennessee and Ole Miss were No. 12 and No. 13 in opponent-pass-completion percentage.
The various stats from last season indicate that without adding solid transfers or recruiting a few outstanding freshmen (who can contribute in the 2023 season), the production returned by Auburn, Tennessee and Ole Miss does not suggest better defensive performance in the coming season.
Four SEC teams did receive high rankings in the 247 projection of the nation’s best 2023 defenses. The Georgia Bulldogs and the Alabama Crimson Tide are ranked No. 1 and No. 2. The Texas A&M Aggies are ranked No. 7 and the LSU Bengal Tigers are ranked No. 10. For from the SEC to have the top two and four out of 10, is impressive.
247 listed four teams as ‘Just Missed’ in the top 10 rankings. One of the four is the Missouri Tigers.
Alabama Crimson Tide fans will enjoy this snippet
Some pundits are claiming Kirby Smart’s 2023 defense might be his best ever. Alabama football fans will enjoy that 247 stated that a claim could be made, that Alabama, and not Georgia, should have been ranked No. 1.
Note: 2022 team stats provided by cfbstats.com
Other top defenses projected by 247 are No. 3, Michigan; No. 4, Penn State; No. 5, Florida State; No. 6, Clemson; No. 8, Wisconsin and No. 9, Iowa.