Week 0 is here. On Saturday, Farmageddon will kick off the college football season in Ireland and begin the process of whittling down from 136 teams in FBS football to the 12 that make the College Football Playoff.
It’s the second year of the 12-team format, though this time with tweaked seeding to avoid Boise State getting a bye to the CFP quarterfinals as the fourth-highest-ranked conference champion. Now, the five highest-ranked conference champions will still be guaranteed a spot in the CFP, but will get no preferential seeding from the committee.
Other than the seeding snafu, it’s safe to say that Year 1 of the 12-team era was a resounding success. That’s not just because the champion, eighth-seeded Ohio State, came from outside the top four, but because so many more regular-season games had significance late into November, including Alabama’s disastrous loss to Oklahoma in Week 13 that kept the Crimson Tide out of the party.
An inherently regional sport has become more national than ever, and while there are drawbacks to that reality, particularly through realignment, it makes for a compelling product. And, crucially for the thousands of football writers like myself, it provides year-long fodder with 12-team CFP predictions. Therefore, I’ll submit my first entry. Here’s a look at my preseason CFP bracket prediction.
It’s fair to harbor reservations about Ty Simpson’s ability to quarterback this team to the SEC title in his first season as the starter, but with Texas, Georgia, and Ole Miss all breaking in a first-time starters as well, I’m going to bank on the roster that has the most talent top to bottom, and I believe that’s Alabama.
Simpson is entering a perfect ecosystem with elite talent on the offensive line, even better pass catchers, and a defense that nearly remained intact from last season. I don’t project Alabama to go undefeated through the regular season, but I do see the Tide taking out Texas in the SEC Title game.
The conferences desperately want to cling to their conference title games (more specifically, to the revenue they generate), so the committee is likely to put as many conference champions atop the CFP bracket as they can justify. So, if forced to choose between Clemson and Penn State, it’s the Tigers that have a better chance of going undefeated in the regular season.
Cade Klubnik doesn’t wow with his physical tools, but he’s a reliable veteran who can make big plays and won’t turn the ball over. He’s a top Heisman candidate for a reason, so with a defense led by TJ Parker, Peter Woods, and – what’s this, a Dabo Swinney transfer portal addition? – Will Heldt, the Tigers should roll to another ACC crown.
James Franklin has had his problems with Ohio State and Michigan since taking over Penn State, but how many times has he had the better roster than those Big Ten powerhouses? The answer is not many. This year, he will.
I expect Drew Allar to take a step forward in Year 2 under offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki, but even if he doesn’t, with Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen in the backfield and three veteran transfer portal additions at wide receiver, the offense should be improved. This is the best roster Franklin has had in his 12 seasons at Penn State, so it’s now or never.
The defending national champions aren’t starting the year at No. 1 in the country, and that’s for good reason. The Buckeyes lost their starting quarterback, four defensive linemen, both of their running backs, their No. 2 wide receiver, multiple offensive linemen, a linebacker, three defensive backs, and both coordinators. And yet, Ryan Day’s team still has arguably the best players in the country on both sides of the football in Jeremiah Smith and Caleb Downs.
My main concerns about Ohio State are on the defensive line, but there’s just too much talent in Columbus for me to doubt the Buckeyes. I think Ohio State gets Penn State in the regular season, and the Nittany Lions pay it back in the Big Ten Championship Game.
I’m not nearly as high on Texas as coaches and the AP voters seem to be, and I’m willing to bet that the defense and run-game will have to carry Arch Manning for stretches of this season, but with the schedule that Steve Sarkisian’s team is fortunate enough to face, I’d still anticipate the Longhorns to end up as the SEC runner-ups.
Marcus Freeman named CJ Carr his starting quarterback on Tuesday, and while it was concerning that Carr didn’t sustain the momentum he built in the spring, the Irish are one of five preseason top 10 teams breaking in a first-year starting quarterback: Texas, Ohio State, Georgia, Notre Dame, and Alabama. I have all five making it to the CFP.
Let’s not focus on Gunner Stockton. Instead, I’d like to direct your attention to an overhauled wide receiver room with Noah Thomas and Zachariah Branch coming in through the Transfer Portal to join Dillon Bell, Colbie Young, and London Humphreys. There’s no Brock Bowers or Ladd McConkey in that list, but it’s still the best group of pass catchers Georgia has had in a while.
Kyle Whittingham built Utah into a perennial Pac-12 contender with finishes inside the CFP top 12 in 2019, 2021, and 2022. The Utes looked poised to be the class of the Big 12, but Cam Rising’s injuries have derailed the last two seasons. Now, with Rising gone and New Mexico transfer Devon Dampier in place for 2025, I expect Utah to get back on track and win the Big 12. The Utes have a tough schedule, but Texas Tech, Arizona State, and Kansas State all have to make the trip to Salt Lake City, which is not an easy place to play.
Garrett Nussmeier is my pick to win the Heisman Trophy in 2025, but a prediction that LSU makes the playoff is a bet on Blake Baker finally fixing the defense in his second season under Brian Kelly. The group made strides last year, and a top-ranked transfer portal class should put it over the top this season.
Louisville intrigues me as a dark horse in the ACC, especially with Carson Beck coming off an injury at Miami, but I believe in trusting the teams that are the strongest on the lines of scrimmage, and that’s Miami. Mario Cristobal constructed one of the best offensive lines in the country, and with Rueben Bain Jr. leading the defensive front, the Hurricanes should be much improved on that side of the ball.
It’s Year 3 Matt Rhule. At Temple, he went from two wins to six to 10 in Year 3. Then at Baylor, from one win to seven, to 11 in 2019. After leading the Cornhuskers to a 7-6 record and their first bowl game appearance since 2016 last season, I’m following the trend and predicting a breakout for Nebraska.
I have my reservations about Dan Mullen’s effort and ability as a recruiter, but the guy has always won ballgames. The roster had to be completely overhauled after Barry Odom left for Purdue and Brennan Marion took his go-go offense to Sacramento State, but Mullen’s Rebels still project as a top contender in the Mountain West.