The SEC is officially in a drought. College Football’s preeminent conference hasn’t won a national championship since the Georgia Bulldogs claimed the second of their back-to-back titles in 2022. The SEC hasn’t even had a team in the national title game in either of the last two years. Yet, the conference enters 2025 with the No. 1 team in the country and plenty of contenders nipping at the Texas Longhorns’ heels.
The sport’s two power conferences will square off in Week 1 with Arch Manning leading Texas into The Horseshoe for a College Football Playoff Semifinal rematch with the defending champion Ohio State Buckeyes, but there are plenty of SEC storylines beyond the football royalty taking over in Austin. So, I’ve taken the time to make one bold prediction for all 16 teams in the SEC ahead of the 2025 season.
Alabama: The Crimson Tide win the SEC… and maybe more
If you believe that Ty Simpson is the right guy at quarterback, then there really isn’t a flaw on this Alabama roster, and Simpson will have as good a chance as any first-year starting QB in the country to develop into a star. Kalen DeBoer has a proven track record of QB tutelage, the offensive line is loaded with NFL prospects, and Ryan Williams is probably the second-best wide receiver in the entire country. You couldn’t dream up a better ecosystem.
Maybe you could question if LT Overton can carry a somewhat unproven pass rush, but the linebackers are experienced, the secondary is loaded with talent, and Kane Wommack did a nice job leading the defense last season. Nick Saban won a national title in his second season in Tuscaloosa. Why can’t DeBoer do the same?
Arkansas: Sam Pittman will be the first casualty of the coaching carousel
Arkansas has one of the best quarterbacks in the SEC in Taylen Green, but Green may be regretting not hitting the portal right about now. Even a dual-threat playmaker like the 6-foot-6 senior QB won’t be able to carry this Arkansas roster through the SEC gauntlet. Pittman held onto his job with a 7-6 season last year, but the schedule is more difficult in 2025. The Razorbacks are likely to start 0-3 in SEC play with Ole Miss, Tennessee, and Texas A&M on the docket, with another loss to Notre Dame in late September, so Pittman could be gone before Halloween.
Auburn: Jackson Arnold will get benched for Deuce Knight before November
Jackson Arnold was put in an impossible situation at Oklahoma last season. The Sooners shooed Dillon Gabriel away to hand the five-star the reins, then the offensive line was a disaster, and just about every top pass catcher got hurt. Arnold’s confidence was shot by the time he got benched for Michael Hawkins Jr., and, though he’ll be throwing to the best group of pass catchers in the conference at Auburn this season, his experience in Norman is the type that can completely derail a player’s development track.
Deuce Knight is going to be raw as a true freshman, but his talent is alluring. So, if Arnold struggles and Freeze feels the heat midseason, he could pull the ripcord in an attempt to save his job.
Florida: The Gators will miss a bowl
I’m high on Florida’s roster. Billy Napier didn’t overhaul the program through the transfer portal, so this rebuild has taken longer than the fans in Gainesville would’ve liked, but there is talent all up and down the depth chart. There are just two problems: the schedule and the quarterback.
Once again, the Gators have an absurdly hard schedule, featuring LSU, Miami, Texas, Texas A&M, Georgia, Ole Miss, Tennessee, and Florida State. That schedule has prevented me from hopping aboard the hype train, and DJ Lagway’s offseason injury issues threaten to knock it off the tracks entirely. Lagway is an exciting young quarterback. In my opinion, he’s the most talented thrower in the country, but he missed time with an injury last season, hasn’t been 100 percent throughout fall camp, and if he goes down this year, there isn’t a Graham Mertz waiting to step in.
Georgia: Nate Frazier will lead the SEC in rushing yards
With Treveor Etienne out for the 2024 season opener against Clemson, true freshman Nate Frazier looked like Georgia’s next star in the backfield. Then, he caught a case of fumblitis, putting the ball on the ground twice against Ole Miss and again in the SEC Title Game against Texas.
The fumble issues took some of the shine off his star. Still, even after the offseason addition of LJ McCray from Illinois, Frazier is the clear No. 1 back heading into the season on an offense with a new starting quarterback that will want to lean heavily on the ground game under offensive coordinator Mike Bobo. Frazier can be a workhorse for the Dawgs, and if Stockton is up-and-down, he’ll need to be.
Kentucky: Mark Stoops will go winless in the SEC
Kentucky is a basketball school, and that’s never mattered more than in the revenue-sharing era, when the success of one program in the athletic department can directly impact that of another. Kentucky football isn’t spending like the rest of the SEC, and it shows with this roster. Zach Calzada had his moment in 2021, leading Texas A&M to an upset win over Alabama, but there’s a reason he spent last season at Incarnate Word, and it’s different from the one that forced Cam Ward to start his collegiate career there.
LSU: Garrett Nussmeier will win the Heisman Trophy
The word out of Baton Rouge is that Brian Kelly hit on his secondary additions from the Transfer Portal this offseason, and in Year 2 under Blake Baker, the entire unit should take a major step forward. However, it’s still a question mark, and though Kelly went hard in the portal, it didn’t have the high-level talent it has in years past.
With defensive question marks, a run game that struggled last season, and an offensive line that lost left tackle Will Campbell to the NFL Draft, Nussmeier will be asked to carry a lot offensively. Last season, with a similar responsibility on his shoulders, he threw too many interceptions. However, he’s still the best true dropback passer in the country, and if he cleans up his game as a redshirt senior, he’ll be LSU’s third Heisman Trophy-winning quarterback, joining Joe Burrow and Jayden Daniels.
Ole Miss: Austin Simmons will lead the SEC in passing yards
No surprise, Lane Kiffin went back into the Transfer Portal this offseason, but he didn’t exactly pull out a Walter Nolen or Princely Umanmielen. He did grab Princewill, Princely’s younger brother, but without a dominant defensive line, the Rebels will take a major step back on that side of the ball. Leaving Simmons, much like Nussmeier, to throw early and often to keep them in games. The first-year starter has impressed in limited work, and with Lane Kiffin’s offense, he could be prolific.
Mississippi State: Jeff Lebby’s Bulldogs won’t get blown out by a Group of Six opponent
Year 1 of the Jeff Lebby era was forgettable for Mississippi State fans, but the undeniable lowlight was a 41-17 loss to Toledo, a team that finished 4-4 in the MAC. The Bulldogs will likely suffer a non-conference loss because this is the worst time in college football history to have Arizona State on the schedule, but with Transfer Portal upgrades and a healthy Blake Shapen, Lebby’s squad should be good enough to escape Southern Miss, Alcorn State, and Northern Illinois unscathed.
Missouri: Eli Drinkwitz will have major QB regrets
Beau Pribula made waves last season when he departed Penn State before it began its College Football Playoff run to secure a starting job through the Transfer Portal. Yet, it’s August 17, and he still hasn’t locked down the QB1 spot at Missouri. Pribula is stuck in an uninspiring QB battle with Sam Horn, and Missouri’s quarterback play looks poised to let down a talented defense.
Oklahoma: If the SEC sneaks five teams into the CFP, Oklahoma will be one of them
I’ve tempered my enthusiasm about John Mateer this offseason. The Washington State transfer was prolific in 2024, but he put up his massive numbers against Mountain West-caliber competition. The SEC is a different beast. However, Mateer has the arm to make every throw, the legs to create off-schedule, and he arrived in Norman with his offensive coordinator, Ben Arbuckle. If it all clicks, Oklahoma could be one of the best teams in the SEC, and I see the Sooners finishing with nine wins. The question is: will this year’s CFP committee give a nine-win SEC team a seat at the table?
South Carolina: It’s a year too late for LaNorris Sellers
LaNorris Sellers’ breakout came in late October, after South Carolina had already sunk to 2-3 on the year. He got healthy after an early-season ankle injury, and the redshirt freshman took off. Now, he’s heading into 2025 as a top NFL prospect and Heisman hopeful with the Gamecocks at No. 13 in the country, but that ranking fails to take into account the rest of the roster.
For a program like South Carolina to compete in the SEC, all the stars have to align, and Sellers’ emergence came a bit too late. No matter how much he punches above his weight class on the recruiting trail, Shane Beamer will never have the talent to replace all of the defensive talent his program shed in the 2025 NFL Draft. Dylan Stewart will be a force on the edge, but without Kyle Kennard, T.J. Saunders, Nick Emmanwori, and the other five defensive starters the Gamecocks lost to the NFL, his impact will be significantly mitigated.
Tennessee: Vols fans are going to miss Nico Iamaleava
Maybe this isn't quite the most bold prediction, but it feels like Tennessee fans said good riddance when Josh Heupel put his foot down with Nico and ultimately sent him packing. Heupel is one of the best offensive designers in the country, and he will be able to construct a competent offense around Joey Aguilar. However, make no mistake, that spring “Transfer Portal trade” was a significant downgrade for Tennessee.
Aguilar is unafraid, and at times his willingness to trust the read, point, and shoot will lead to explosive plays for Heupel’s offense, but last season at App State, it also led him to 14 interceptions and 25 turnover-worthy plays (according to PFF), the most in the country.
Texas: The defense and run game will carry Arch Manning
Arch Manning is the Heisman Trophy favorite, but it’s difficult to tell if those expectations are warranted after just two carry starts. What is clear, however, is that the No. 1 team in the country is loaded, and Steve Sarkisian doesn’t need to put everything on his first-year starting QB. With CJ Baxter back healthy to supplement Quintrevion Wisner, the Longhorns have a legit one-two punch in the backfield. Defensively, Pete Kwiatkowski boasts a terrifying duo of his own with Anthony Hill Jr. and Colin Simmons, two of the most disruptive players in the country.
He’ll get a test Week 1 at Ohio State, but even if Manning fails, he’ll have plenty of time to develop into the player Sark needs to compete for a national title.
Texas A&M: Mike Elko’s offense will be the star of the show
I’m not expecting it, but I could see Texas A&M finishing at 9-3 and just missing the College Football Playoff with losses to Notre Dame, LSU, and Texas. That’d be a good season for Mike Elko in Year 2. The reason I’m bullish on the former defensive coordinator’s team, though, is his offense.
Marcel Reed has real flaws as a dropback passer. He’s not comfortable in the pocket, not terribly accurate, and refused to get the ball out in rhythm, averaging well over three seconds per dropback. Yet, Reed ranked 33rd in the country in EPA/dropback, ahead of Quinn Ewers, Nico Iamaleava, and even Cade Klubnik. The threat of his legs allows him to be efficient as a passer and lowers the bar he needs to clear in the traditional dropback game for Texas A&M to have an effective offense.
Vanderbilt: Clark Lea is going bowling, again
James Franklin is the only coach in Vanderbilt history to lead the program to back-to-back bowl games. Franklin did it all three years he was in Nashville, and while Clark Lea got off to a much slower start to his tenure, he’s in a good position to become the second after last season’s 7-6 campaign. Diego Pavia and Eli Stowers are back to lead one of the most interesting offenses in the country, and though their preseason win total is set at 4.5 in the FanDuel Sportsbook, I have the Commodores winning six.