2025 Week 7 12-team College Football Playoff prediction: Indiana steals the SEC's bye

The SEC is the deepest conference in the country. You can make a compelling argument for 10 different teams to make the College Football Playoff at year’s end and the league may take five of the 12 spots. However, with so much parity across the top of the league, even the SEC Champion may not claim a top-four seed and a bye through the first round. 

Alabama is the SEC favorite and rightfully so after surviving the two biggest conference road games on its schedule, beating Georgia and Missouri. However, the Tigers, with a limited passing game and an injured No. 1 wide receiver, pushed the Crimson Tide to the brink in Week 7 with Ty Simpson needing to lead a late touchdown to drive to extend the lead, and even that almost wasn’t enough. 

SEC parity could cost the conference a top-four seed

The Tide, for all their talent, are fallible. Week 1 proved that. Ty Simpson has been the best quarterback in the conference, and without that unforeseen development, the Tide might be careening toward another four-loss campaign. That’s how slim the margins have become in the league. 

Unranked Texas got its first conference win, taking down No. 6 Oklahoma in the Red River Shootout, Ole Miss nearly tripped up in a non-conference contest with Washington State, and if it weren’t for a blown review and horrendous officiating, Auburn may have knocked off Georgia in the Deep South’s Oldest Rivalry. 

There are losses to be had in the SEC, and with Indiana asserting itself as the top contender to Ohio State in the Big Ten by beating Oregon 30-20 in Eugene on Saturday, the Hoosiers look poised to snag a top-four seed, even as an at-large team. 

Indiana belongs in the national title conversion

Table for 12 Week 7: Indiana has officially arrived as a title contender

Last season, Curt Cignetti’s team lost both of its games against ranked opponents. Granted, those opponents were Ohio State and Notre Dame, which ultimately played for the national title, but it was still hard to argue that the Hoosiers belonged in the national championship discussion. Now, it’s impossible to keep them out. 

Indiana controlled Saturday’s top 10 matchup in the trenches and had the athletes to match Oregon on the perimeter. Despite a pick-six, Fernando Mendoza still looks like a first-round pick, and the upgrade he provides from Kurtis Rourke has been meaningful. 

If the Hoosiers win out in the regular season, and they have a great chance to do it now, and they meet the unbeaten No. 1-ranked Buckeyes in Indianapolis, how do you penalize either of those teams for losing that game? Throw in Miami’s dominance over the ACC, and Texas Tech, which looks head and shoulders above the rest of the Big 12, and you’ve got your four byes accounted for. 

That won’t make Greg Sankey happy, but it will make for an incredibly compelling and competitive first round of the CFP.