Alabama football faces Oklahoma this weekend in a similar position to a year ago for this game.
At 8-1, the Crimson Tide is in excellent College Football Playoff shape. A win over the Sooners likely clinches a spot in the SEC Championship Game and the College Football Playoff for Alabama.
They weren't quite in that good of a spot a year ago, but Alabama controlled its playoff destiny before getting ambushed in Norman. That 24-3 loss to the Sooners on the road knocked the Tide out of the College Football Playoff and served as the perfect representation of the 2024 season for Kalen DeBoer and his team.
Oklahoma can't knock Alabama out of the playoff this year, but they can muddy the waters for a team with a clear College Football Playoff path. The difference this year is that the Sooners aren't just fighting for bowl eligibility: they are a playoff contender in their own right. Oklahoma is sitting right on the outside looking in, and can bust the door down with a road win over Alabama.
With an extra week of preparation, the Sooners will surely have a quality game plan to attack Alabama's weaknesses.
This game will likely come down to who can execute at a higher level in the fourth quarter and which team has players step up and make big plays when they have to.
3 potential X-Factors for Alabama against Oklahoma
RT Wilkin Formby
Oklahoma has one of the top defensive lines in the country. If Alabama's offensive line can't hold up, then it won't matter what Ryan Grubb cooks up or how well Ty Simpson plays. So consider this X-Factor to really be the entire offensive line, though we're going to single out the weakest link.
Because so will Brent Venables.
Oklahoma defensive end R Mason Thomas is a game-wrecker. He leads the Sooners with 6.5 sacks, and they are going to line the terrorizing edge rusher up against Formby as often as they can. They'll see it as a mismatch because it is one.
Alabama needs the entire offensive line to play well, but it likely needs the best game of Formby's life. Because even if he plays well, he may not be able to stop Thomas and the creative blitz packages that Venables will employ to confuse an often befuddled Tide offensive line.
WR Ryan Williams
Ryan Williams has been good for Alabama this year, but he hasn't been the transcendent superstar wide receiver he has the potential to be. That's the version the Crimson Tide needs him to morph into on Saturday afternoon against Oklahoma.
Williams has the potential to be a game-changer himself. Alabama won't be able to run the football against Oklahoma. I'm not sure they could run the football against air right now. So the game plan will likely be pass-heavy. I would expect a heavy dose of quick passes to try and combat the Oklahoma pass rush.
That should mean a steady diet of Williams, who is a demon in space. He's hard to tackle even in a phone booth.
Of course, this is contingent on Williams being healthy. He has been nowhere close to 100% in recent weeks and has made frequent appearances on Alabama's injury report.
S Bray Hubbard
Since a poor performance in Week 1 against Florida State, Bray Hubbard has played every other game like an All-American. He's all over the field every week. He's been functioning more as a "box-safety" this season, almost like an extra linebacker, and he has been flying around making plays every single week. He's also more than capable of dropping into coverage. He has a knack for getting his hands on the football.
With a heavy-RPO offense like Oklahoma runs with John Mateer, Hubbard is going to have to trust his instincts and be prepared to attack or drop depending on what Mateer does. Kane Wommack has a lot of trust in Hubbard, and he's going to put him in spots where his decision directly impacts whether or not the play for Oklahoma is successful.
Hubbard has been a turnover machine for Alabama this year, intercepting three passes and forcing two fumbles. In a game with tight margins across the board, Hubbard could make a game-changing play that swings it in the Crimson Tide's favor.