When it comes to the Alabama Crimson Tide, so much has been made about the navigable schedule. There are no easy schedules in the SEC, but Alabama's has a manageable start and potentially a reasonable finish. As for the middle third, that is a different story. How Kalen DeBoer does during the October portion extended will determine how much faith the Crimson Tide fan base will have in him.
In case you needed a reminder, here is what the Alabama football schedule looks like for this season.
Date | Opponent | Location | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
Sept. 5 | East Carolina Pirates | Tuscaloosa, AL | 11:00 a.m. CT |
Sept. 12 | at Kentucky Wildcats | Lexington, KY | 2:30 p.m. CT |
Sept. 19 | Florida State Seminoles | Tuscaloosa, AL | 2:30 p.m. CT |
Sept. 26 | South Carolina Gamecocks | Tuscaloosa, AL | 5:00-7:00 p.m. CT |
Oct. 3 | at Mississippi State Bulldogs | Starkville, MS | 11:00 a.m-12:00 p.m. CT |
Oct. 10 | Georgia Bulldogs | Tuscaloosa, AL | 5:00-7:00 p.m. CT |
Oct. 17 | at Tennessee Volunteers | Knoxville, TN | 2:30-7:00 p.m. CT |
Oct. 24 | Texas A&M Aggies | Tuscaloosa, AL | 2:30-7:00 p.m. CT |
Oct. 31 | BYE | ||
Nov. 7 | at LSU Tigers | Baton Rouge, LA | 2:30-7:00 p.m. CT |
Nov. 14 | at Vanderbilt Commodores | Nashville, TN | 11:00 a.m.-12:00 p.m. CT |
Nov. 21 | Chattanooga Mocs | Tuscaloosa, AL | 1:00 p.m. CT |
Nov. 28 | Auburn Tigers | Tuscaloosa, AL | 2:30-7:00 p.m. CT |
Dec. 5 | SEC Championship | Atlanta, GA | 3:00 p.m. CT |
Alabama draws East Carolina, Florida State, and Chattanooga in the non-conference, all of which will be at home. In its nine-game SEC schedule, Alabama has four home games and five road dates. The Crimson Tide will host South Carolina, Georgia, Texas A&M, and Auburn. They will have to travel to Kentucky, Mississippi State, Tennessee, LSU, and Vanderbilt this season as part of conference play.
While the four games of note between Oct. 10 and Nov. 7 jump off the page, all DeBoer's team needs to do is split them to be in a fantastic spot to reach the College Football Playoff. Some teams will be better, while others will be worse. Regardless, this is the season DeBoer needs to define his tenure leading Alabama. The Nick Saban era is firmly in the rearview mirror. He has to come up big this year.
Without further ado, here are five games on Alabama's schedule that will largely define this season.
5. Texas A&M Aggies (Oct. 24: Tuscaloosa, AL)
On paper, Texas A&M may be one of the two toughest teams on Alabama's schedule. It may be a home game, but it is one that occurs in the middle of their Oct. 10 - Nov. 7 run. A win over the Aggies would largely put them into playoff position. Conversely, a loss to Texas A&M will not be as punitive as others. The Aggies will occasionally be a thorn in Alabama's side, but that is a team with high variance.
In theory, this is a game Alabama could win, but will not be crushed for losing. Texas A&M was a playoff team a year ago. Mike Elko has his program rolling in College Station. The biggest difference between this game from the middle third when compared to the Georgia, Tennessee, and LSU games is the range of emotions from the outcome. A&M may be a playoff team, but do we really trust them?
A win over A&M is not as good as a UGA win, nor is an Aggies loss as bad as one to the Vols or LSU.
4. South Carolina Gamecocks (Sept. 26: Tuscaloosa, AL)
There had to be a game outside of Alabama's tough middle third to be discussed. While there were several candidates for this designation, the South Carolina home date jumps off the page. Alabama is fortunate that it will not face a ranked team before Georgia. However, South Carolina has played the Crimson Tide well the last few years. The Gamecocks were nearly a playoff team two seasons ago.
With Shane Beamer's job on the line this season, as well as potentially the last one for Gamecocks stars like LaNorris Sellers and Dylan Stewart in Columbia, look for South Carolina to play like its hair is on fire. DeBoer may have it in him to lose a dumb game to a team Alabama never should annually. The Florida State game shall be circled. Potentially will Vanderbilt. This one feels like a bit of a trap game.
The last thing DeBoer needs is for Alabama to be heading into the Georgia game with one SEC loss.
3. Tennessee Volunteers (Oct. 17: Knoxville, TN)
Of the handful of games of consequence that Alabama cannot afford to lose, the road date at Tennessee has to be at the top of the list. Of the five teams listed in this article, the Volunteers are arguably the least likely to make the College Football Playoff. Texas A&M did a year ago, while South Carolina nearly did two. Tennessee qualified two years ago, but that campaign feels like an anomaly.
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While Alabama has had the upper hand on the Third Saturday in October over the last two decades, Tennessee has played the Crimson Tide very well in Knoxville of late. Should Alabama stumble to the Vols at Neyland Stadium, it may put their playoff chances on life support. Tennessee needs to rework its defense and usher in a new quarterback this season. So does Alabama, but the Vols are worse off.
A win is more of a sigh of a relief than anything, while a road loss to Rocky Top may sound the alarms.
2. Georgia Bulldogs (Oct. 10: Tuscaloosa, AL)
Of course, Georgia was going to be on here. This is the toughest game on Alabama's schedule. While Texas A&M could be a problem too, Georgia has won the SEC the last two years, making the College Football Playoff both times. Although Alabama has dominated the Dawgs for the most part over the last two decades, Georgia won the most recent game over the Crimson Tide in Atlanta for the SEC.
A win over Georgia probably does more for the Crimson Tide's playoff viability and national title hopes than any other game on the schedule. While a loss may sting a little bit, it is not the most punitive one Alabama could have. The Crimson Tide can still make the playoffs with a home defeat to Georgia, but it likely rules out their chances of getting to Atlanta to avenge the loss in the title bout.
Beating Georgia will always be an impressive pelt on the wall, but a UGA loss means a closing window.
1. LSU Tigers (Nov. 7: Baton Rouge, LA)
No game on Alabama's schedule will have more of an impact on the playoff picture than its road date after the bye at LSU. This will be DeBoer's first foray into the wonderful world of Lane Kiffin football. His Bayou Bengals enter this season playoff-viable as well. However, he does have to revamp the defense Brian Kelly never built. LSU does have a more challenging schedule than Alabama this year.
Simply put, where this game falls on the schedule could be a de facto playoff elimination game. The chances of these two teams having one or two losses by this point of the season are fair. LSU is more likely to have an additional blemish before the Alabama game than the Crimson Tide. Right now, it is hard to see both of these teams making the CFP out of the SEC with Georgia and Texas above them.
If the SEC does get four teams into the playoffs, it may be Alabama or LSU, but definitely not both.
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