There are a few familiar names that are expected to play their way into the Heisman Trophy discussion this season, but most of the SEC contenders in 2025 are breaking in new quarterbacks. That should make for an interesting season as the league looks to reclaim its place as the dominant force in college football.
According to the FanDuel Sportsbook, Texas, Georgia, and Alabama have the best odds to win the SEC this season, and all three have different starting QBs than they did in Week 1 a year ago. However, experience isn’t everything. Talent and circumstance, be it a great play-caller, an elite group of pass-catchers, a top offensive line, or maybe all three, can play a significant role in determining a player’s statistical output.
With the season right around the corner, I’ve taken a crack at predicting the passing leaders in the SEC for 2025. For the most part, these predictions assume health and that the player holds onto the starting job, but those extraneous factors are taken into account where they could matter most.
This list varies greatly from my Preseason SEC QB Rankings because that is my assessment of the players themselves, not their situation or projected statistical output.
Austin Simmons has attempted 32 passes in his collegiate career, but the redshirt sophomore is a good bet to lead the conference in passing yards in 2025. Playing for Lane Kiffin doesn’t guarantee the top spot, but with a rebuilt wide receiver group after Tre Harris’s departure for the NFL, Simmons is stepping into an ideal situation to put up huge numbers in Oxford.
In 2024, Jaxson Dart led the conference with 4,279 passing yards and he did it with the fourth-most pass attempts in the league. Dart averaged over 10 yards per attempt and completed nearly 70 percent of his throws. Kiffin’s system is one of the most QB-friendly in the country, and Simmons' big arm and quick release should allow him to take advantage.
If predicting Austin Simmons to lead the SEC in passing is a bit too bold for your taste, then Garrett Nussmeier is a much safer projection. Nussmeier eclipsed the 4,000-yard mark last season, the only SEC QB other than Dart to surpass that nice round number.
LSU’s defense took a step in the right direction under Blake Baker after an abysmal year in 2023, but the run game struggled mightily, putting a lot of Nussmeier’s shoulders. That workload led to prolific production, but also untimely mistakes, finishing the year with 12 interceptions. If LSU is a better all-around team in 2025, it could suppress Nussmeier’s statistical output while increasing his effectiveness.
Since he committed to the Longhorns in the 2023 class, 2025 was always expected to be the year of Arch Manning. Now, it’s finally here, and he inherits a Texas program with national championship expectations. Though that may not be much loftier than the ones that go with the seven letters stitched into the back of his jersey.
Manning is the Heisman Trophy favorite, but that has more to do with name recognition than a true projection of his performance in Year 1 as the starter for Steve Sarkisian. Still, it’s safe to expect Manning to put up big numbers for the Longhorns. Last season, Quinn Ewers threw for nearly 3,500 yards despite missing two games and playing much of the season with a torn oblique.
Lagway is the most talented quarterback in the conference, and likely the entire country. If he stays healthy, the sophomore quarterback should factor into the Heisman Trophy race, but that’s a significant if. Lagway missed time last season with a hamstring injury that forced him to be carted off the field, and has been seen wearing a walking boot this offseason.
Lagway has the arm to make every throw on the field and the build to stand confidently in the pocket against SEC pass-rushers, but that confidence can tend to get him into trouble. Worse, the impact of any missed time will be twofold, both keeping him from racking up passing yards and building a rapport with a mostly new receiving corps, including true freshman Dallas Wilson.
Like many of the quarterbacks at the top of this list, Simpson’s pedigree outweighs his collegiate experience. The former five-star has attempted just 50 passes across his three seasons in Tuscaloosa. Yet, he’s expected to hold off 2025 five-star Keelon Russell for the starting job. Assuming Russell stays put on the sidelines, Simpson should have an impressive stat line by the end of the year.
The transition from Jalen Milroe to Simpson should suit Kalen DeBoer and offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb, who helped a pocket-bound Michael Penix Jr. to a near 5,000-yard passing season in 2023 en route to the national championship game. As Penix did in Seattle, Simpson has elite receivers to throw to and an offensive line that should be in Joe Moore Award contention all season long. Experience be damned, Simpson should have a big year.
Oklahoma didn’t just get John Mateer this offseason. First, Brent Venables plucked his offensive coordinator, Ben Arbuckle, away from Washington State to build a high-powered offense in Norman. Mateer is oozing with physical talent as both a runner and a thrower, but after dominating a largely Mountain West schedule, the SEC is a significant step up in competition.
Tennessee essentially executed a transfer portal trade with UCLA in the spring, replacing Nico Iamaleava with Joey Aguilar. While the former App State QB doesn’t carry the reputation, Iamaleava did as a former five-star; he’s a fearless thrower who racked up 3,700 passing yards in 2023 and who could thrive in Josh Heupel’s veer-and-shoot system.
LaNorris Sellers is entering his redshirt sophomore season as a Heisman Trophy favorite, but that’s primarily because of his dual-threat ability. Sellers lost three of his top five targets from last season, so I’m not quite so bullish on the potential of an uptick in his passing output.
- Jackson Arnold, Auburn: 2,500+
- Diego Pavia, Vanderbilt: 2,500+
- Marcel Reed, Texas A&M: 2,000+
- Blake Shapen, Mississippi State: 2,000+
- Gunner Stockton, Georgia: 2,000+
Stockton held his own in his first career start in the College Football Playoff Quarterfinal at the Sugar Bowl against Notre Dame, and that has many high on Georgia’s prospects as a national title contender this season. Still, Stockton is completely unproven and on a team that aspires to win with defense and the ground game. In Stetson Bennett’s first title season, he failed to surpass 3,000 yards in 14 games, and he already had 12 games of experience to that point.