Oddsmakers are bearish on the chances of Alabama Basketball winning more NCAA Tournament games. Ten teams, including Arkansas and, of course, Michigan, are given shorter odds to win the NCAA Tournament than Alabama.
Not many Alabama fans have a basketball national championship on their minds this week. As Nate Oats puts it, Michigan is "looming" for the Crimson Tide. Oats explains that the Wolverines have "ridiculous size all over the place," presenting the Crimson Tide with its toughest challenge since playing Arizona in December. And the Wolverines are bigger than the Wildcats.
Let's review one predictive model, ESPN's BPI, to consider Alabama's probability of beating Michigan, advancing to the Final Four, reaching the National Championship Game, and winning it all.
Anyone groaning at the use of ESPN's algorithm is understandable. The World Wide Leader can be insufferable. But the BPI, which goes back to 2011, is a pretty accurate tool. As defined by ESPN, the BPI is "... designed to measure team strength and project performance going forward. In the simplest sense, BPI is a power rating that can be used to determine how much better one team is than another."
Tennessee with higher Elite Eight probability than Alabama
For Alabama fans, the Elite Eight number that stands out is the 27.4% probability assigned to the Crimson Tide to beat Michigan. The BPI gives 12 Sweet 16 teams a 39.4% probability to reach the Elite Eight, including Tennessee at 39.4% and Michigan at 72.6%.
The BPI gives 13 teams a 10.8% or higher probability to reach the Final Four. Alabama is at 10.9%. The Vols are again higher than the Crimson Tide at 14.6%. Michigan is at 46%.
Percentages drop considerably for making the Championship Game. For 13 teams, they range from 4% (Alabama) to 37.1% (Duke). Tennessee is at 5.9%, and Michigan is at 27.4%.
The probability for Alabama winning it all is 1.3%. The BPI favorites are Duke (27.8%), Arizona (15.9%), Michigan (15.3%), and Houston (13.6%). All the other Sweet 16 teams are at 6.7% or lower.
It would be extreme to say the Crimson Tide is 'Against All Odds' in the Michigan game. Alabama is not, however, trending as an upset pick. Nate Oats and his team seem to relish being an underdog and proving the 'experts' wrong.