The radar is clearing up, and the chances for rain on Saturday in Starkville have diminished. That should lead to the type of heavyweight battle at QB between Alabama's Keelon Russell and Mississippi State's Kamario Taylor that everyone will be tuning in to see.
But that matchup could be spoiled because of one major advantage Alabama should have.
On both sides of the ball, Alabama should have an advantage in the trenches, particularly when both teams are passing the football. State run blocks effectively and does a good job of stuffing the run defensively, but when these two teams air it out, the advantage up front will be in the Tide's favor.
The weak point on Mississippi State's offensive line is both tackles. That's the strength of Alabama's defensive line, with star pass rusher Yhonzae Pierre and USC transfer Devan Thompkins both having the ability to flip this game on its head.
At LT, Mississippi State starts Alabama transfer Miles McVay, who might have a real problem in any one-on-one matchups against Pierre or Thompkins. The same could be said at RT for Jakheem Shumpert-Perkins, who is a first-year starter this season.
Now, Taylor is evasive in the pocket and capable of making defenders miss and then making a play with his legs or hitting throws down the field outside of the pocket. Alabama fans have seen Russell do that all year so far and will get a taste of their own medicine this week in Starkville. Maintaining rush lane integrity and bringing Taylor to the ground when they get a hand on him will be critical this week.
Alabama has the edge on the other side of the ball, too.
Alabama's offensive line should be able to hold up against the Mississippi State pass rush
If you give Keelon Russell time, as South Carolina did last week, he's going to carve you up. Mississippi State's pass rush has been mediocre at best so far this year, averaging 2.3 sacks per game. Alabama's offensive line has been doing excellent work in recent weeks, and should be able to hold up against State even without RT Jayvin James, who is questionable for this game. If he's out, JUCO transfer Tyrell Miller will get the start, and there should be plenty of optimism in his ability to hold up under duress. He played well in relief of James last week.
Mississippi State DC Zach Arnett will get creative with some blitz packages to try and confuse Russell and bring pressure from all over. That's something Alabama will need to be ready for and adjust to throughout the game. But without simulating pressure, the Bulldogs will have trouble getting to Russell and affecting him.
And that's what this game could come down to. Which offensive line can hold up under pressure, and which defensive line can make an impactful play and potentially force a game-changing mistake from the opposing QB?
Alabama fans should be prepared for some defensive frustration on Saturday. Taylor is a supremely talented player, and Mississippi State's wide receivers are outstanding. So, too, is RB Fluff Bothwell. The Bulldogs are going to score some points.
But in a back-and-forth type game, stealing a possession or two could be the difference. Alabama ranks 18th in the country in turnover margin. Mississippi State is 79th.
If the game comes down to a turnover or creating a havoc play in the backfield, then I trust Alabama's defense to be the one that makes it.
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