The title of this post presents two different reasons why 'Keelon doesn't have to worry about beating Kamario Taylor.' One is simple. The dynamic pair of quarterbacks will not go head-to-head because they will never be on the field at the same time.
A different perspective is which QB has a better chance of leading his team to victory. That quarterback may not be the QB who makes the most sensational plays.
Mississippi State fans will be at a fever pitch despite the early start. The game is the biggest the Bulldogs' program has had in many years. The Bulldogs will be as motivated as any team Alabama will play this season. They will play unencumbered by doubt or fear. They might win.
Why Keelon will lead Alabama to a win
Keelon Russell has an advantage over Kamario Taylor. His defensive teammates give the Crimson Tide an edge. In a previous post, stats from Brian Femeau's model reinforced a claim that Alabama has the better defense. More traditional stats from cfbstats.com also indicate the Tide's defensive advantage. In yards per carry allowed, Alabama is No. 5 among SEC teams; Mississippi State is No. 9. In Team Passing Defense Rating, the Crimson Tide is No. 12. The Bulldogs are No. 16.
Stats on quarterback pressures and hurries sometimes produce sketchy information. Alabama may have an advantage over the Bulldogs, but the Crimson Tide is expected to be without two key defensive players. Even without called runs, Kamario Taylor can punish defenses with his legs. Applying pressure and blowing up plays are not the same, and Taylor is a hard quarterback to bring down. The point is that this expected Alabama defensive advantage is not certain.
Midweek computer models have the Crimson Tide winning by less than a point, five points, or six points. Brian Femeau's and Kenneth Massey's models have the Crimson Tide winning by 10 points.
Alabama's biggest risk might be Keelon trying to do too much. If he is patient and takes what the Bulldogs' defense gives him, Alabama should win. Outdoing Kamario Taylor needs to be the furthest thing from Keelon's mind. Blocking Taylor out of his mind should be easier than blocking out the cowbells.
For Alabama and Mississippi State fans, the game could offer gut-wrenching drama. Sometimes in close games, the best team doesn't win, and sometimes neither does the best quarterback.
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