Some college football fans doubt the value of analytics in predicting game outcomes. Almost universally, there is a perspective that the BCS Era rankings were too dependent on computer models. This week, top computer models have an average prediction that the Alabama Crimson Tide will beat LSU by 12 points.
My take is the game is above-average, difficult to predict. The main reason is LSU's coaching change. Reading through LSU message boards, there is a sense that LSU players respect and like Frank Wilson. While Brian Kelly might have had a similar level of respect, many players were tired of his frequent tirades. LSU fans now see what many outsiders saw when Kelly was hired. He was a good coach who was a bad fit for LSU.
Going into Saturday night, both teams have weaknesses, with LSU having somewhat more than Alabama. No college football is without weaknesses. The Alabama Crimson Tide is an immensely talented team. So is LSU. Two of LSU's three losses were by a touchdown or less in road games against Ole Miss and Vanderbilt.
Alabama Crimson Tide and Perseverance
Alabama is a team that excels at persevering in close games. Kalen DeBoer and the Alabama football staff deserve credit for that resiliency. In what I'm calling a difficult game to predict, more of that resiliency will be needed Saturday night.
The computer models are not wrong, based on stats, Alanama is close to two touchdowns better than the Bengal Tigers. But models don't measure passion, intensity, and something else that may favor LSU: the relief of not playing for Brian Kelly.
Conversely, Saturday night might be a coming together game for the Alabama Crimson Tide. If Alabama can keep Ty Simpson's pocket clean and add an efficient rushing offense, beating the Bengal Tigers should be no problem.
The flip side is LSU's intensity at the start should be its highest of the season. The Bengal Tigers will look to establish a running game. On defense, the LSU secondary might be good enough to send numbers to disrupt Simpson. If these strategies are effective and the Crimson Tide makes mistakes, LSU might gain a first-half lead in the game.
In the end, I expect the Crimson Tide to win either fairly easily or a closer game via a second-half war. Alabama is a better team than LSU, but the Bengal Tigers will be highly motivated to prove that is not true.
An interesting prediction is provided by Pete Fiutak, who has Alabama winning 27-23.