A few days ago, I added to an admittedly small group of predictions by stating Alabama Football will win 10 or more regular-season games. There are solid reasons for the bold optimism. And, of course, there are weaknesses the Crimson Tide must overcome to achieve such success. Try naming a team that doesn't have any weaknesses. There aren't any.
Two calculations, the ESPN FPI and Bill Connelly's SP+, are bullish on the Crimson Tide. The FPI has Alabama ranked at No. 3 nationally, and Connelly has Alabama at No. 2. ESPN also has Alabama with the fourth-highest probability of making the National Championship Game at 20.2%.
Though Alabama, with a projected Strength of Schedule (SOS) of No. 10, has a somewhat easier schedule than Georgia (No. 8) and Texas (No. 4), the Tide's SOS is tougher than the top Big Ten contenders. The SOS for Ohio State is No. 18; Oregon is No. 25, and Penn State is No. 27.
The overall SOS is one reason Alabama has a difficult path to double-digit regular-season wins. The other reason is the Crimson Tide's road schedule. It is hard to know how much improved Florida State will be, or if Missouri will slide back from last season. Still, at FSU, at Georgia, at Missouri, at South Carolina, and at Auburn appears daunting for an Alabama team that struggled on the road last season.
ESPN provides a list of 11 teams for which "the clock is ticking" in 2025. Their list is called the "Impatience Index." To no one's surprise, Alabama is on the list. Even without a second-year coach who followed the GOAT, Alabama will always be on any impatient list. Ironically, ESPN did not over-hype the perennial impatience of Alabama Crimson Tide fans: "Any season that doesn't end with a Crimson Tide championship (SEC or national) will result in some degree of discord."
For Alabama Football coming close 'doesn't cut it'
For Alabama, coming close does not suffice. A 9-3 Alabama might make the next Playoff field, but if it didn't, the momentum Kalen DeBoer has built since January will plummet. There's no backtracking from me on my double-digit win prediction, but there is an oddity that is discomforting. Based on ESPN's Impatience Index, the Crimson Tide plays five of the 10 other teams on ESPN's list: FSU, Wisconsin, LSU, Oklahoma, and Auburn.