There was a lot of negativity surrounding Kalen DeBoer and the Alabama football program at the end of last season, particularly following a rough December in the Transfer Portal and a loss to Michigan in the ReliaQuest Bowl. Fans and pundits were beginning to shovel dirt on the days of Alabama being a national power.
But now, as we sit just over a month until the start of the 2025 season, folks across the nation are beginning to accept that the Crimson Tide will have one of the most talented rosters in the country this season. Alabama is a legitimate National Championship contender. They have everything they need to get it done.
They have to be better in a few areas, and they have to clean up some things around the margins, but it would surprise no one to see Alabama be the last team standing when the season is all said and done.
ESPN's Bill Connelly is a believer in how good the Tide can be. His SP+ formula from last season paints a different picture than Alabama's 9-4 record. In his formula, Alabama ranked No. 4 in SP+ after the season despite the disappointing overall record.
Now, Connelly believes Alabama has as few question marks as anyone standing between them and the crystal football.
Alabama wins the National Championship if...per Bill Connelly
The first big "if" standing in front of Alabama is obvious. If Ty Simpson, or one of the other two quarterbacks, can execute the offense the way new offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb needs.
According to Connelly:
"Basically, if you tell me now that Simpson is going to be good this season -- not even great, just good -- this is a top-five team at worst. It's just hard to guarantee that."
It may seem simple, but sometimes what separates good teams from contending teams is that simple. For Alabama, they have everything else. It will all come down to quarterback play.
As Connelly mentions, Alabama's QB play last season was far too erratic. Jalen Milroe produced a lot of big plays, particularly with his legs, but they were overshadowed by the negative ones. Milroe produced 20 turnovers - 11 interceptions and 9 fumbles - and was sacked 23 times.
If Alabama can get steady play, and find a quarterback who just takes care of the football and keeps the offense on schedule, that will be a dramatic step forward. If Simpson, or Austin Mack/Keelon Russell, can be great, this is the best team in the country.
Connelly's second if is regarding the pass rush and increasing pressure on opposing quarterbacks. Alabama's defense made major strides last season, ranking 9th in the country in yards per play defense and finishing 8th overall in Connelly's SP+ defensive metric.
It speaks a lot to Alabama's young secondary last season that even with a boatload of injuries, the Tide ranked seventh in the country in passing success rate allowed despite ranking 70th in sack rate.
Alabama's secondary will be as good as any in the country next season. The Tide returns starting corners Domani Jackson and Zabien Brown, added quality depth with Utah transfer Cam Calhoun and 5-star freshman Dijon Lee, and returns two safeties with starting experience in Keon Sabb and Bray Hubbard.
But for Kane Wommack's defense to take the next step from really good to perhaps the best defense in the country, they have to get after the QB better than they did a year ago. Qua Russaw needs to take a step as a pass rusher, and Alabama will need to find production behind him at Wolf from Jah-Marien Latham, Yhonzae Pierre, or perhaps freshman Justin Hill, to ensure there isn't a major fall off when he's not out there.
Alabama's defensive line has the potential to be even more disruptive this season. LT Overton lived in the backfield last season, but struggled to finish plays. If he can improve that, he'll be an All-American in 2025. James Smith broke out late last season and could be that game-wrecking defensive tackle that Alabama has missed the last few seasons.
In Connelly's article, only Penn State and Alabama have two question marks among National Championship contenders. Every other contender has three or more, which speaks to how well rounded DeBoer has built this roster to be.