On the heels of yesterday's post on Alabama's rankings by four computer models, newBrian Fremeau's FEI Ratings were released on Tuesday. Fremeau's calculations are voluminous and rightly respected. Week 3 data is too thin for solid predictions, but Crimson Tide fans can be justifiably optimistic that Alabama's second-best SEC team FEI rating is sound.
We'll dive into efficiency details below, but first a list of the FEI Rating for each SEC team.
Alabama and the SEC in the FBS FEI Ratings
- No. 1 Georgia Bulldogs - The Bulldogs are at the top of the FBS despite a weak schedule, impacting a Strength of Record (SOR) from No. 21 to No. 27. The Dawgs must continue to win impressively, with a projected Strength of Schedule (SOS) from No. 110 to No. 113.
- No. 6 Alabama Crimson Tide - Alabama's SOS has a wide range of No. 4 to No. 54. The Crimson Tide's SOR is strong, ranging from No. 1 to No. 4.
- The FEI Rating for the 14 other SEC teams: Texas (No. 7); Ole Miss No. 12; Tennessee No. 13; Texas A&M No. 14; Oklahoma No. 16; LSU No. 20; Florida No. 24; Mississippi State No. 25; South Carolina No. 28; Missouri No. 29; Auburn No. 31; Kentucky No. 36; Vanderbilt No. 38; and Arkansas No. 63.
Brian Fremeau's ratings shown below are opponent-adjusted. His Offensive and Defensive Efficiency Ratings are as good as or better than those of any other model.
SEC Teams Offensive Efficiency: Georgia (No. 2); Ole Miss (No. 3); Alabama (No. 6); Tennessee (No. 9); Mississippi State (No. 12); Texas (No. 18); Florida (No. 19); Vanderbilt (No. 20); Texas A&M (No. 22); LSU (No. 36); Arkansas (No. 40); South Carolina (No. 46); Auburn (No. 42); Missouri (No. 49); Oklahoma (No. 51); and Kentucky (No. 61).
SEC Teams Defensive Efficiency: Georgia (No. 4); Texas (No. 5); Oklahoma (No. 7); Alabama (No. 9); LSU (No. 11); Missouri (No. 16); Texas A&M (No. 18); Kentucky (No. 22); South Carolina (No. 24); Tennessee (No. 26;, Auburn (No. 30;, Ole Miss (No. 42); Mississippi State (No. 44); Florida (No. 48); Vanderbilt (No. 67); and Arkansas (No. 88).
All computer models can provide is probability. Variables which are impossible to project will affect the outcomes of some games. That does not mean game predictions have no value. Fremeau's model projects Alabama beating South Carolina 33 - 18. Bill Connelly has the Crimson Tide winning 30-21. Jeff Sagarin projects Alabama 35 - South Carolina 24.
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