There are a handful of teams jockeying for positioning in the College Football Playoff picture. Expect for the Alabama Crimson Tide to be one of them. After narrowly missing out on the playoffs two years ago, Kalen DeBoer guided his team into the 12-team field in 2025. From there, Alabama avenged an Oklahoma home loss at their place before running into the buzz saw that was the Indiana Hoosiers.
While the Crimson Tide has a relatively favorable schedule, one college football analyst does not have them returning to the playoffs. Athlon Sports' Steven Lassan did not have Alabama as one of his five SEC teams to make the field: No. 2 Georgia, No. 3 Texas, No. 8 Oklahoma, No. 9 Texas A&M, and No. 10 LSU as the last at-large team in. He has Alabama playing the SMU Mustangs in the Gator Bowl.
No way around it, that is brutal... Although the SEC would be so fortunate to get five teams into the playoffs again, do not count on it. Even more concerning, he has Ole Miss going to the Citrus Bowl, South Carolina to the Music City Bowl, and Florida to the ReliaQuest Bowl. The pecking order may change, but that is not great company to be in, as well as Missouri heading to the Las Vegas Bowl.
So we are potentially looking at Alabama being the sixth or seventh-best team in the SEC after next season. With it being DeBoer's third year at the helm of the program, that is simply not good enough. For Alabama to finish somewhere in that hierarchy in the SEC, we are looking at them being no better than 9-3, probably closer to an 8-4 finish. DeBoer has lost four games each of his two seasons here.
SMU is a quality opponent out of the ACC, but there is also this intersting wrinkle from the Gator Bowl.
Alabama Crimson Tide projected to face SMU Mustangs in the Gator Bowl
So instead of playing in a high-stakes, first-round game at Bryant-Denny or somewhere else in the country, Alabama would have to settle for a less-than-capacity crowd in Jacksonville. Keep in mind that EverBank Stadium is being renovated. The Jaguars will be playing in Orlando for this NFL season. Atlanta will host Georgia-Florida in 2026. Tampa will host it in 2027. But the Gator Bowl is happening!
Look. Even if Alabama were to miss the playoffs in two of DeBoer's three seasons in charge of the football program, it should not be the end of the world. The Crimson Tide were the first team out two years ago after a 9-3 season. A similar finish would probably have Alabama playing Michigan in Orlando instead of Ole Miss. That being said, being projected to the Gator Bowl this year is horrific.
While the standard is changing under DeBoer, when compared to the unrealistic precedent Nick Saban set before him, Alabama should remain a playoff-contending team every year. In a 12-team format, Alabama should finish firmly inside the top 16 annually. If the team jells and it gets the right series of matchups, a national title run could be in play for the Tide. Nobody is repeating anymore...
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To tie a bow on this, seeing Alabama fall this far back in the bowl game projection pecking order is hard to stomach. With the schedule Alabama has now, this team should be able to go 10-2 and make the playoffs again. It has a breezy start to the season. While the middle third is brutal, that is just the nature of the beast that is SEC football. DeBoer needs to show his constituents that he is about that.
If Alabama were to play SMU in the Gator Bowl in a less-than-capacity crowd, fans should be furious.
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