After a much-needed bye week where Alabama was able to rest and (hopefully) get healthy, the Crimson Tide is set up for a season-defining matchup in Baton Rouge this coming weekend against LSU.
Both teams enter at 6-2. One team will exit the game with clear momentum in the College Football Playoff race, while the other will all but certainly be eliminated (probably).
On Sunday, FanDuel released its opening odds for the matchup, and Alabama is a small underdog.
LSU opened as a 3.5-point favorite, suggesting Vegas believes this game is effectively a toss-up on a neutral field. The 3.5 points are effectively the benefit of playing at home for the Tigers.
Alabama has found plenty of success over the years in Baton Rouge, however. The Crimson Tide holds a 30-10-3 record at LSU, one of the only teams impervious to Death Valley's mystique.
But while this game looks like a season-defining spot to all of us from the outside, oddsmakers don't necessarily agree, at least from an Alabama perspective.
Oddsmakers remain high on Alabama's College Football Playoff chances
Perusing FanDuel this morning, I noticed something interesting.
While Alabama is an underdog against LSU this weekend, the Crimson Tide still has really good odds to make the College Football Playoff. As of Sunday morning, it looked like this:
To Make: -300
To Miss: +240
Alabama's odds to make the playoff are the fifth-best in college football, behind only Miami, Georgia, Indiana, and Notre Dame.
So maybe a loss to LSU wouldn't be the end of the world for Alabama's CFP hopes. There's certainly a chaotic pathway that could get the Crimson Tide to the playoff at 9-3, though it would obviously take the decision completely out of their own hands.
The big problem Kalen DeBoer will face if Alabama loses this weekend is that there won't be another opportunity for a quality win. Alabama finishes the season at Vanderbilt, vs. Chattanooga, and vs. Auburn. Beating those teams isn't going to move the needle for anyone.
But it's also part of the reason Alabama has such strong odds to make the playoff. If the Crimson Tide can find a way to win in Baton Rouge, the schedule sets up very, very well to get to 10-2 and effectively guarantee a spot.
Obviously, Tuesday's first CFP rankings will give us a better idea of where Alabama stands in the eyes of the committee. That will have a big impact on playoff odds.
Regardless, Alabama has to approach this weekend's trip to Death Valley with desperation. To control its own destiny, a win is necessary. Otherwise, DeBoer and his team will have to hope for enough chaos to allow the Crimson Tide to backdoor their way into the postseason.
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