Alabama's odds to make the CFP somehow dropped on ESPN following Iron Bowl win

Alabama didn't get any closer to a College Football Playoff berth, at least in terms of ESPN's playoff probabilities, after winning the Iron Bowl.

Alabama escaped Jordan-Hare Stadium on Saturday with a 27-20 win. It was a win that clinched the Crimson Tide's place in the SEC Championship Game against Georgia, but Alabama's odds of making the College Football Playoff actually decreased in the aftermath of the Iron Bowl.

Alabama came into the weekend with a 67.9% chance of making the playoff, according to ESPN. After winning the Iron Bowl, Alabama's odds dropped to 65.9%:

Why?

For the most part, chalk held during the final weekend of the regular season. The only Top 10 team to lose over the weekend was Texas A&M, but the Aggies only dropped from No. 3 to No. 7 after losing for the first time this season.

Everyone else ahead of Alabama won, meaning the Crimson Tide finds itself in roughly the same playoff position as it was prior to the Iron Bowl. Teams like Washington, Mississippi State, and LSU could have done Alabama a favor by upsetting Oregon, Ole Miss, or Oklahoma, respectively, but all three of those teams held on to wins that clinched playoff berths.

The good news is that Alabama's playoff path seems pretty simple.

The two ways Alabama can clinch a College Football Playoff berth

Alabama should be in the College Football Playoff no matter what happens this weekend against Georgia, but there remains one nightmare scenario that can keep the Crimson Tide out.

The scenario revolves around an Alabama loss to Georgia and BYU upsetting Texas Tech in the Big 12 Championship Game. At 11-1 and sitting several spots ahead of the Crimson Tide, the Red Raiders are unlikely to drop out of the projected playoff field even with a loss to the Cougars. A win by BYU would be bid-stealing; the Big 12 would then get two teams in the playoff field instead of the expected one.

That could leave Alabama on the outside looking in if it loses to Georgia. At No. 10, Alabama is actually the last team in the playoff field at this moment. Spots 11 and 12 are currently reserved for two more conference champions, as only three of the required five conference champs are ranked inside the Top 12.

Of course, the simplest way for Alabama to make the playoff is to make the Big 12 Championship Game irrelevant. Beat Georgia, and the Crimson Tide will clinch an automatic bid into the playoff, and perhaps jump up into the top four to earn a first-round bye. In the very least, it would be good enough to earn the Tide a home game in the first round.

Had Alabama not lost to Florida State - or if they had not given the game away against Oklahoma a few weeks ago - the SEC Championship Game would only be about playoff positioning.

Instead, the College Football Playoff starts earlier for Alabama than everyone else.