After a thrilling Iron Bowl win on Saturday night, Alabama clinched a spot opposite Georgia in the SEC Championship Game. They also sit in pretty good shape for the College Football Playoff regardless of the outcome, but there is one scenario that would be a nightmare for the Crimson Tide and potentially keep them out of the 12-team field.
Obviously, if Alabama wins, they're in as the automatic bid from the SEC. They might even get a bye in the first round. At the very least, it would be enough to earn the Crimson Tide a home game at Bryant-Denny Stadium in the first round of the playoff.
A conference championship loss wouldn't be all that damaging. The committee would be remiss to punish a team for having to play an extra game it earned. In theory, it can only help the Tide's standing. But what the committee should do and what they will do are totally divergent ideas.
There remains one nightmare scenario that could keep Alabama out of the College Football Playoff if it falls next week to Georgia in Atlanta.
That scenario revolves around BYU beating Texas Tech in the Big 12 Championship Game.
Alabama fans will be rooting for Texas Tech in the Big 12 Championship
At 11-1 and following Texas A&M's loss to Texas, Texas Tech is likely to slide up from No. 5 into the Top 4. They would be in line for an opening-round bye week if they can take care of business against BYU in the Big 12 Championship Game. A Red Raiders win would ensure the Big 12 is a one-bid league.
But if BYU was able to avenge their only loss of the season and knock off Texas Tech, the Cougars would earn the automatic bid to the playoff. And it would be highly unlikely that the Red Raiders would drop from No. 4 all the way out of the playoff for losing in their conference championship game, the same way Alabama would have theoretically done.
That would probably be enough to knock Alabama out of the projected field. That would be a nightmare scenario for Alabama, the SEC, and the future of the playoff/conference championship games.
If Alabama could go from being in the playoff field to out because they lost the conference title game, you can kiss the SEC Championship Game goodbye.
Alabama sits in a good spot heading to Atlanta, but the only way they can control the outcome is by taking care of business and beating Georgia to avoid leaving things in the hands of the committee.